The C.J. Miles Effect

Posted by Stanton Huntington on October 03, 2007

I like to think I’m a results-oriented person. I’m not overly concerned with the method; I just want to achieve the optimal result. You know, substance over form, essence rather than style. It’s a theory the Spurs understand better than any other organization in the NBA and the rafters in the AT&T Center only prove the concept’s value.

The Jazz need only make one change to implement the substance over form phenomenon and realize its benefits: play C.J. Miles. That’s right, play C.J. Miles. It may not be sexy, it may not be pretty, but the more C.J. Miles plays, the more the Jazz win. During the ’06-’07 season in games where C.J. played 10 minutes or more the Jazz went 13-8 (.619). When Miles played 15 minutes or more the Jazz won eight games and lost only two (.800). And when C.J. logged 20 minutes or more the Jazz were a perfect 4-0 (1.000). Oh, and in the 13 games C.J. Miles started the Jazz went 12-1 (.923).

Sure Miles has his detractors. They say he turns the ball over too much. They say he can’t get into Sloan’s offense. But whatever shortcomings Miles’ individual game may have, for some reason, the more minutes he gets, the better the Jazz’ results. Maybe it’s substance over form. Maybe it’s essence rather than style. Maybe it’s the C.J. Miles Effect.

Postscript – C.J. Miles signed his qualifying offer the morning of October 1^st and reported to training camp. He gave a radio interview that can be found on the TheFANSports.com under the heading “Live From Jazz Media Day.” Note how excited and mature C.J. sounds. Unlike the small forward drama, this shooting guard drama is shaping up to be a pretty good time.

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2 Comments

ChrisR on October 04, 2007 said:

As I break down the box score…
It appears that CJ’s PPM (points per min) and TPM (turnovers per min) were pretty constant regardless of the minutes per game.

under 10 min (18 games): 0.29 PPM, 0.08 TPM
10-15 min (12 games): 0.23 PPM, 0.12 TPM
15-20 min (10 games): 0.29 PPM, 0.02 TPM
over 20 min (6 games): 0.34 PPM, 0.07 TPM

I think his stats were less consistent through the season:
Oct .34 PPM, 0.05 TPM
Nov .28 PPM, 0.07 TPM
Dec .26 PPM, 0.13 TPM (his turnovers negated all his points)
Jan (no points or turnovers)
Feb .45 PPM, 0.03 TPM (his best month)
Mar .19 PPM, 0.10 TPM
Apr .20 PPM, 0.07 TPM

Stanton Huntington on October 04, 2007 said:

ChrisR – Interesting analysis. I think in a sense it supports my argument that C.J.’s effect on the game is somewhat of a phenomenon. Where his direct, individual impact (scoring and turnovers) on the game doesn’t seem to vary depending on minutes, the Jazz’ win percentage certainly does. Maybe its because C.J.’s defense was better (not really sure about that) or maybe he is simply better at letting the big boys take care of business and not getting in the way. If I had to make a guess as to why, I’d lean toward the latter and say C.J.’s game fits into the flow of Williams, Boozer, Memo etc. better than the other off-guards. I always thought that Fisher’s presence on the floor last year slowed the offense down more often than not. Am I crazy in that thought?

Despite my theory, the competition for the Jazz starting two-guard seems to be between the rest of the five or six, and not Miles.

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