‘Mathmatically Speaking…’

Half the season, plus one game gone, and 40 games to go.

And, you thought this would be a lesson in the ‘new math’.

The Jazz are playing at an .800 clip, in their last 10, since Kyle Korver joined the team. They won’t keep that pace up, but it sure beats the doldrums of December. They’re only a half a game out of the playoff picture, with the Rockets breathing down their necks, and the Kings waiting in the wings for a playoff push. Two or three playoff caliber teams are going to be home watching the playoffs in HD on their giant flat screens.

It’s hard to measure, with the easier schedule, but the Jazz seem to be on track to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, Portland and Denver may not falter enough for the Jazz to overtake them. In fact, the Blazers are probably playing the best ball of the three. Without the NW Division championship seeding, one round and out would be likely. However, any of the top 10 Western teams are capable of being upset, as already demonstrated frequently this season. The usual ‘elite’ Western teams have repeatedly stumbled, losing to ‘lesser’ teams. The Jazz are, in fact, only 6 losses behind the leader. Unlike last year, no team is running away in the West. It’s wide open, but extremely competitive.

Some of the 8 teams in front of the Jazz are bound to get key injuries or have a losing streak. It happens every year, but will it happen to the Jazz too?

The simplest solution would be to rewrite the schedule, play the Paper Clips for the last 40 games, and then draw them as the first round opponent. Might be some obscure NBA rule against that. Perhaps Larry would move the Jazz to the East, where they would have the 4th best record, and an even easier schedule. Hummmm, not a good idea!

Two keys to the playoff run are the addition of Kyle Korver and the health of Matt Harpring.

Kyle is a young Horny with good wheels! Actually, his percentages behind the arc and at the charity stripe are better than Horny’s were. Kyle’s release is at least as quick as Horny’s was. His mobility and defense are better, but Horny had that sweet little runner, where the bar of soap squirted out of his hand and found its way through the hoop. They both came in trades from Philly (thanks Philly!!!). They are both great people and team members. What’s there not to like? (thanks Kevin!)

Matt has been unleashed and unmuzzled. Remember when the Jazz would play AK at SG and The Junkyard Dog at SF? With AK’s improved shooting and Matt’s license to kill expanded, we may see that combination on the floor again. It has been a potent combination, when used in the last two years.

My prediction at the first of the year was 48-34. That may be close enough to make the playoffs, and a first round match up with the best team in the West. They’re on track for 47-35 right now, but improving.

This is a young team evolving, not a finished product. The Jazz need a young, shot blocking, 7-1 center with the ability to move his feet on defense. Perhaps a trade or… Ahhhh, I wonder if… courtesy of Philly and Kevin again, we already have him? Fess up! Anyone got the answer? Will the farm boy have had enough schooling to return to the big city prior to the playoffs? Will Fess get his chance? If the Jazz draw the Spurs, again, he could be a key Duncan defender.

So, the Jazz are already in the playoffs, ending the season better than I predicted, and pulling a ‘Golden State’ in the first round. They didn’t even have to play the second half, minus one.

Geez, I hate it when you start to doze off and your head droops, and then snaps back with a myoclonic jerk, waking you up! Was that a dream or reality?

Well, maybe they do have to actually play the games, and a lot of things will have to fall into place, to duplicate last year. However, now it actually seems possible.

Jazzaholic