Win Or Go Home? Not Yet…

Posted by Aaron Heaton on April 16, 2008

I remember the NBA schedule for the 2007-2008 season being relased last year.  I looked immediately at the last week of the season because that is the one stretch of games when the Spurs probably will not play like four time champions.  The Suns will have cooled off.  The chip on the Mavs’ shoulder will be less motivating.  The Lakers…  well..  who cared about the Lakers back then.  The point is that teams often have their playof seed determined going into those last few games.  As a result, coaches mail it in, resting their starters and allowing reserves to steal the spotlight (much like Miami has done for the last several months). 

‘Tough Stretch’ (Melissa Majchrzak -NBAE/Getty Images)

Because of that tendency, I was happy to see our last six games come against the likes of San Antonio (twice), New Orleans, Dallas, Denver, and Houston.  However, a week ago, as the importance of those games continued to pressurize, I dreaded that stretch run.  As it turns out, it has been a perfect test run through various playoff atmospheres without thrusting the Jazz into the cellar of the playoff seeding. 

With our last regular season game slated for tonight at 6:30pm, one last question remains.  Should the Jazz even want to win t’nite in San Antonio? 

With the win, the Jazz would break their rather embarrassing string of defeats in San Antonio dating back to last century.  More importantly, we would lock up the 3 seed, have come court in the first round, and start the playoffs playing the Spurs, Suns, or Rockets.  With a loss, we would remain the 4 seed, and almost certainly start the playoffs on the road in Houston or Phoenix (most likely Houston).   

So what playoff scenario is most favorable?

On the one hand, the Jazz are the best home team in the NBA and should do anything to secure that advantage if only for the first round.  On the other hand, everyone in the west seems to want to be the one to launch the Yao-less Rockets from the playoffs, and a 3 seed would likely deny the Jazz that opportunity.  Moreover, being the 3 seed would open the door to possibly playing San Antonio in the first round, and increasing our odds of playing Phoenix, two teams that have tasted play-off success in the past. 

Now, those who believe in NBA karma may cite Dallas’ miscue from a year ago as reason enough to play your hearts out and let chips fall where they may.  Last year, despite having suffered convincing defeats at the hands of Golden State earlier in the season, the Mavericks rested starters and played “And-1″ style during their final meeting during the last week of the season, knowing full well that a Golden State win would make a first round matchup that much more likely.  Mavs have regretted it ever since. 

All of that aside, perhaps the best (or only) determining factor requires looking ahead to round two.  Assuming the Lakers (1 seed) and Hornets (2 seed) take care of business, who would we rather meet in the conference semis?  I am certainly not shaking at the prospect of playing the Lakers, but who woudln’t want to see D.will lace ‘em up across from CP3 for 7 games?  For that reason alone, I’ll take our chances with the 3 seed and first round home court.  Either way, I’ll be watchin’ t’nite. 

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