Locke: Millsap/Boozer by the Numbers
Posted by David Locke on December 16, 2008
BOOZER V. MILSAP
The number one conversation amongst Jazz fans right now is if Paul Milsap’s 11 straight double doubles while playing for Carlos Boozer proves he is capable of stepping in if Boozer leaves in the off-season. It may prove he is capable, but it certainly hasn’t proven the Jazz would be as good.
With this topic raging on 1320, K-Fan I thought I would break down some numbers. This is isn’t exactly fair since Boozer was playing without Deron Williams this year or when Boozer goes out of a game he is subbed for with Milsap, whereas when Boozer is hurt and Milsap leaves the game he is replaced by a less experienced player. Therefore, don’t draw too many conclusions from all of this, but it is worth some food for thought.
BASED ON OPPONENT
Some of these numbers are surprising so how much does it have to do with the opponents the Jazz have played.
The defenses that the Jazz have played in the 13 games without Boozer allow 1.5 pts more per 100 possessions then what the teams of the first 12 games did. Therefore, though the 13 games without Boozer have a slightly better offensive rating the defenses the team has played in that span have been far worse.
The average defense in the 12 Boozer games is a 109.0 and the Jazz scored 109.9, or .09 better than average, whereas in the 13 games without Boozer the Jazz are scoring 110.5 against defenses that allow 110.6 or right on average.
On the defensive side of the ball it was very surprising to find out that the Jazz have played better defense in the games Boozer played. The offenses that Boozer played have averaged 107.2 points per 100 possessions this year and the Jazz held those teams to 104.9. That is a nice difference of 2.3 better than average. In the games without Boozer the opponents have averaged 108.8 pts per 100 possessions and the Jazz defense has been a 107.2 or 1.6 points better than the average. Still not quite equal to what the team did in the 12 games Boozer played.
Again these numbers have numerous variable but they are enough to make on re-consider the conventional wisdom of how the Jazz are similar or different with Milsap and Boozer
16 Comments
JayRay on December 17, 2008 said:
is there a way to track double teams drawn per possession and how many scoring opportunities are taken advantage of when we are double teamed?
i have for some reason become fanatical about the fact that we don’t get double teamed anymore and how it seems that when we aren’t our offense doesn’t move the ball/becomes stagnant.
also, it seems that without boozer when we are double teamed our turnovers are higher than when he is in.
the final statement may not be as true as the first two remarks…
Brenden on December 17, 2008 said:
I was surprised to see that our defense wasn’t as good when Boozer was gone. That being said, maybe the defense at the guard line has tailed off. I’ve noticed that D Will seems to still be a step slow in cutting off the angle. Boozer still needs to take some Mytol for the cramps and lace em’ up. Theres no doubt the team is better with both Millsap and Boozer in the lineup.
Travis O. on December 17, 2008 said:
Lets not forget the fact that Deron Williams makes Boozer a much better player. Each which have also been injured for the majority of the time the other was playing games.
J R Stewart on December 17, 2008 said:
Perhaps the team difference is Boozer has Millsap as a backup and Millsap has ???
The combination of Boozer/Millsap is the best the Jazz have, and you’d expect better stats, both offensive and defensive with Boozer starting, because of his backup, Millsap.
Jazzaholic
ErnMon on December 17, 2008 said:
I know The Williams to Boozer, (alias “Stockton to Malone”) is still in the heart of the owner, and coach of the Jazz. I to think Williams makes Boozer a better player, but it seems to me he makes other players look not so good, he gets a little selfish sometimes. I like to watch them play when Ronnie or Breven are at the point guard, they seem to make it a better team effort instead of a two man show. Jazz have a lot of very good player and they seem to shine better with a solid team effort.
Good luck Jazz
ErnMon eemonson@yahooo.com
Steve on December 17, 2008 said:
I think there’s no doubt that Boozer is better than Millsap. I think the Jazz are obviously better with Boozer and Millsap than with just Millsap. The issue I have is with the overlap in positions. Boozer is quicker and more versatile than Millsap, and is a slightly better rebounder, while Millsap is gritty and reliable and a slightly better defender. The problem I see is that we have two players with overlapping skills who are difficult to play together.
I think that Millsap is almost as good as Boozer, but Boozer has lots more trade value, and his future with the team is uncertain as well.
The Miami heat are looking to unload Shawn Marion. I think that would be a perfect opportunity. Marion’s numbers are down a bit off his career numbers, but he would likely rebound if placed on a championship contender. Boozer is somewhat better than Marion, and would probably net some additional incentive in the trade as well. Marion’s scoring and rebounding are almost as good as Boozer, but he plays much better defense – something the Jazz are sorely lacking. Marion could replace CJ Miles – our weakest starter – in the starting lineup, and we would lose very little with the loss of Boozer to Millsap at Power Forward.
Of course, then we’d be overloaded a bit in the small forward department with Marion being backed up by Kirilinko, but both are versitile defenders who can match up with almost any player in the league, from kobe bryant to tim duncan. It would be easy to utilize both in any lineup, and either one could pick up backup minutes from Millsap and play the position easily.
I think Boozer is great, but right now I think this is what would be best for the Jazz.
Jeremy on December 17, 2008 said:
If only orlando wanted to trade boozer for the freak dwight howard, i think that would solve all are problems lol
Ben on December 18, 2008 said:
Locke, you are right. Boozer is better than Millsap. But how much better? Here are some stats that Boozer also beats Millsap in:
1. Injuries. Boozer misses a higher percentage of games due to injury than Millsap.
2. Time to recover from injury. Boozer is more efficient at taking as long as possible to return from an injury than Millsap.
3. Taking advantage of disabled men who are also their employers. Gordon Gund was blind. Larry Miller is in a wheelchair. Paul Millsap has yet to double cross or bamboozle a single disabled man!
4. Children. Boozer is a more efficient at making babies than Millsap.
5. Tattoos. Boozer is more efficient in acquiring tattoos than Millsap.
6. Acne. Historically, boozer has had much better acne over his career than Paul Millsap.
7. Proclaiming “and 1!” Boozer shouts “and 1″ on 88 or 100 possessions. At the pace the Jazz play, this is the most of any player since “Half-Man, Half-Amazing” who was actually on the And-1 Mix Tape Tour.
Brian McCann on December 18, 2008 said:
Problem is, Marion’s contract expires at the end of this season also, and he has made it clear he does not want to play in Utah. He would most likely leave.
#2 Jazz fan on December 18, 2008 said:
Ben,
Seriously dude, that was one of the best comments I have ever seen on this sight. Also, let’s not forget that Millsap is making league minimum and Boozer is way over paid for the amount he actually plays. At this rate… Boozer will make about a million dollars a game!!!! Versus Pauls 10,000 per game. Think about those numbers Jazz fans..
Landon on December 18, 2008 said:
I agree with Jeremy there. If only Dwight was in a Jazz uniform…
C DUBB on December 18, 2008 said:
BOOZER DOES CONTRIBUTE, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ALL HE IS LOOKING FOR IS A PAY RAISE, NOT THINKING ABOUT THE TEAM, BEING A LITTLE SELFISH ESPECIALLY WITH THE EARLY ANNOUNCEMENT. MILLSAP IS MORE OF A WARRIOR, MORE CONSISTANT. MILLSAP IS SOME ONE WE CAN DEPEND ON, AND I SEE HIM AS A BIG PART OF THE JAZZ FUTURE. BOOZER SEEMS TO BE MORE EASILY INJURED, AND NOT AS HUGRY TO WIN, NOT THE WARRIOR THAT MILLSAP IS. MILLSAP HAS A MORE BALLANCED GAME, AND IS ALLWAYS WHERE THE BALL IS, AND WELL ON HIS WAY TO BECOMING A COMPLETE WORK HORSE.
LETS KEEP BOOZER IF WE CAN, BUT AT A REASONABLE PRICE, OR LET HIM GO.
just on December 19, 2008 said:
This is a joke the same as boozer he hates it here so we should just be done with him paul millsap is still way young and will improve greatley when he is not coming off the bench if you play the sport it comes down to being confudent in your self and when starting millsap is so get over boozer send him away and say hello to what is a real all- star in Millsap boozer hates it here anyway.
Hawkart on December 23, 2008 said:
hey, there Jazz fans;
I say lets lose Booz. This is a good team, maybe not a championship calibre for the time being but with one addition surely it will be one of the toughest teams in the league.
Milsap is the up and coming superstar of the league. Deron is second to none. We have a center who can play 4 and can shoot like a 3. AK 47 is the best defensive player of the league. Brew has a nice input. The problem with Booz is, he thinks he is a Superstar but when the all star week comes around he watches the game on tv. He is constantly injured. Or is he? Who knows, maybe he wants to up his contract and get bigger dollars for lesser value. He has the awkwardest shot of all time. If you are that big you dont put that much umpf on the ball and arch it till it touches the ceiling. Other than his dunks, all his shots look like prayers to me. what would I do with a superstar who warms bench half the season?
Here is little trade idea. Give Booz to the Magic, get Hedo and Gortat.
Best PG, Deron.
Best defensive player, AK 47.
Surely not the strongest but fundamentally best longrange shooting Center in the league, Okur.
Powerfull PF, Milsap.
One of the best SF’s, who can play 2 and distribute the ball and moreover can average 6 + R’s a game, Hedo.
A powerhouse, backup C, Gortat.
That means we ll lose a big contract, and the future will shine again.
Hawkart on December 23, 2008 said:
Moreover, we ve seen a superstar, Malone. I never saw him warming bench, or not giving his 100 percent or his nose up in clouds. If you ask me, pardon me for saying so but Boozer is a made superstar. It s understandable, the league needs superstars which it lacks for some time now.
Deron, Hedo, AK47, Milsap, Okur.
They ll get the ring which was stolen from Malone and Stockton.
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Brian McCann on December 17, 2008 said:
Good Points. Jazz fans are jumping off the Boozer wagon in droves, but numbers don’t lie. Get well soon Booz!