Utah…4th Seed?

Posted by Keith Haney on February 14, 2009

Heading into the All-Star break, the Jazz are poised for a solid second half run. I am no longer worried about them making the playoffs and now wondering how high they can climb in the standings. Here’s how I see the second half of the season playing out.

The current standings put Utah (30-23) 6 games behind Denver (36-17) in the loss column. Each team has played 53 games heading into this weekend.

After reviewing the schedule, I’m predicting the Jazz go 21-8. That would leave them at 51-31 at the end of the regular season. A couple of assumptions are included in that record:

1) Boozer and AK come back and play in the Boston game next week. They continue to play the rest of the season.
2) No other significant injuries happen to the main core of the team for the last 29 games. That means Williams, Okur, Brewer, Boozer, AK, and Millsap don’t miss anything more significant time.
3) No blockbuster trades occur that significantly improve teams in the West. With all of the trade talk buzzing around the internet lately, you would think that every player in the league is about to be traded before next Thursday. I’m starting to think that very few teams are going to make any significant moves. Everyone appears to be staying put in this economic environment. All I keep reading about are teams that are looking to dump salary. I haven’t heard of any teams looking to take on contracts that could improve their team but cost them more financially. That’s why I don’t see any contenders making significant improvements to their roster. Portland is the one exception I see. Portland could dump Raef LaFrentz for a better point guard or anything else they want.

I see Denver ending up with 20 more wins. That would leave them at 56-26 for the season and finishing in first place. The Jazz would be 5 games behind. I was hoping to see a surmountable hill they could climb to jump into that 3rd seed in the West but it doesn’t look very promising. To make up the extra ground, Utah would have to make a miraculous run and still need Denver to falter in some games they probably won’t have trouble with. The Nuggets have a tough second half schedule but most of their hard games are at home.

On a positive note, I do see Utah squeaking past Portland as they finish the season 50-32. If all goes well then I really think we could end up in the 4th seed and play Portland in the first round. Not a bad matchup I think. But that would leave the Lakers looming in the second round. Let’s hope that Bynum isn’t back by then.

Go Jazz!

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10 Comments

Montgump on February 14, 2009 said:

The only teams that worry me in the the playoffs are LA and San Anttonio. With Boozer and AK back I think the Jazz could pull off some upsets. I know for a fact that Utah could beat anyone else in the West in a seven game series.

justalars on February 14, 2009 said:

I see Utah going on a 29 game win streak at full strength after the break. But really a couple double digit win streaks aren’t out of the question. We should put on a good run. I don’t think seeding matters so much because we’re not gonna pass the Lakers or Spurs. It will only affect when we play them. We just need to be the Hottest team going into the playoffs!

J R Stewart on February 14, 2009 said:

I sure hope you’re right!

Despite the Hated Laker win, it will take time for Boozer and AK to get back in sync. There are bound to be some team letdowns, leaving you scratching your head, “how could that have possibly happened?”

If Phoenix goes down in flames, which seems very likely, the Jazz should make the playoffs, but 4th place?

I sure hope you’re right!

Jazzaholic

JazzFanFromSanAntonio on February 15, 2009 said:

4th seed… Is it probable? Maybe. I can see at least 6th seed, but 4th is optimistic. Hopefully your optimism is right!

Brian McCann on February 15, 2009 said:

how many games are we behind the current fourth seed again? So why does this seem overly optomistic to some????

J R Stewart on February 15, 2009 said:

The problem I see with the 4th seed is you have to beat not who is currently in the 4th seed, but also 5th, 6th and 7th seeds, plus fend off the Suns, if they get hot. That’s not just one team, but 5, which you have to catch up to and pass.

I don’t think 5 teams will fold. If one or two falter, they move up a couple of spots, not 5.

Jazzaholic

DeronWilliamsforPresident on February 16, 2009 said:

I’m with Brian. We’re currently 2 and a half games behind 4th seed as the season stands. If we play even half as good as we did against LA we win 20 of our next 30. Here’s hoping for third against NOH.

Brian McCann on February 16, 2009 said:

I really don’t think the problem is going to be whather or not a given team folds. Most teams have slightly under thirty games left. To me that is way too many games to start predicting who will be seated where. If there were only ten games left and the Jazz were behind 4 teams, I think you could make more of an argument, but even then, with only a 2.5 game difference from 4-8, anything could happen. With all the time left in the season, I think we still have a realistic shot at Denver. Probable? No, but realistic.

Also factor in key players returning from injuries. You don’t know exactly how AK and Booz will preform initially, but I like our odds when we have them back. We are definitly a better team, and the tide should turn in our favor. I think this game is 90% mental, and with a young team, just having those guys back will make a huge difference. At that point, there are no excuses, and I think they will respond.

J R Stewart on February 16, 2009 said:

Right now the Jazz and Suns each have 23 losses. They are 2 losses behind the Rockets and Mavs. They are 3 losses behind the Hornets and Blazers.
I don’t think they have the tie breaker with any of those teams yet, which means, unless you can win that tie breaker, you can add one more loss they are behind those teams.
They’ve played the easiest part of the schedule so far. March and April are playoff killers.
It doesn’t mean they can’t do it, it’s just going to be extremely tough, even with everyone at full health. It’s probably going to take a run like Houston made last year.
The Jazz need a ‘perfect storm’, and a long string of wins against tough odds and a hard schedule.

I’m a rootin’ fer ‘em!

Jazzaholic

Boondock Saint on February 16, 2009 said:

Here’s to the perfect storm J.R.

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