The Great Race!

Posted by J R Stewart on February 23, 2009

No, not the movie, from 25 years ago, but the great race to a western conference playoff seed. You can see a preview of the playoffs, it might get a little messy.

For the last couple of weeks, the Jazz has anticipated the return of 2 of their former All-Stars. With our favorite assault weapon already back and the Booze getting ready to flow, playoff expectations have soared. However, they remain virtually unchanged in the loss column, despite spectacular wins over the Lakers, Celitcs and Hornets. They have just been slightly better than treading water.

With the exception of three teams, the Hornets, Mavs and Suns, they don’t control their playoff seed.

The Jazz has 23 losses, one ahead of the Suns, and yet to play home and away . The winner of those 2 games will have the tie-breaker and earn a playoff spot, even they end up with identical records. The Jazz are one game behind the Mavs and Blazers. They each have 1 game remaining with the Jazz. If the Jazz win, they will have that tie-breaker with both teams. Still, with a game remaining, the Jazz own the tie-breaker with the Hornets.

A tie-breaker is the same as one full game advantage in the final standings. With Amare Stodemire out for the rest of the season and Boozer coming back, it would take an awful lot to go wrong, in order to NOT stay ahead of the Suns and at least retain the number 8 spot.

The Jazz can NOT win the tie breaker with the Spurs or the Rockets. They still could win the tie breaker with the Suns, Blazers, Mavs, Nuggets and the Lakers. The Lakers are too far ahead to make any difference. The Spurs and Nuggets are 6 and 4 games ahead, in the loss column, meaning they would have to have a major, major collapse, for the Jazz to pass them. If they don’t lose 5 to 7 games more than the Jazz, it will be impossible to catch them.

You can make up wins, but NOT losses. That’s why the loss column is so important.

With 26 games left, it would be highly unlikely that the Jazz can reach the 2nd or 3rd seed, even with no more losses. (Wouldn’t that be fantastic to win out!)

Assuming the Suns fall out of the playoff race, the Jazz could make it tough on the Mavs and the Hornets (one fewer loss) by winning their last game with them, to have the tie-breaker, and pickup that 1 loss.

There are only 6 losses separating 2 through 8.

While you would expect to see 1, or possibly 2, of those teams falter, it’s hard to see 4 of them dropping behind the Jazz, who would then slide into the 4th spot, and home court advantage in the 1st round.

Despite impressive wins over the NBA’s two best teams and the Hornets, at home, and the return of Carlos, the Jazz face a horrid final two months, with lots of road games. They virtually have to win every single game to get home court.

The Suns are setting, the Mavs are soft, the Rockets are injured, the Hornets are weaker and the young Blazers could fade. The opportunity is there to overtake some of those teams.

Can the Jazz make up those 4 losses on ALL those teams? It’s not just one team! Multiply that by three, and they actually have to pickup 6-12 losses. That’s a lot in 26 games.

Can they win the 13 of 26, remaining games with play-off teams?

Can they win the 8 back to back games?

Can they win the 15 road games?

Despite the closeness of the race, I’d have to predict the 6th (in my wildest dreams) , 7th seed (most likely) or the 8th spot, opening on the road against the Nuggets (3), Spurs (2) or Lakers (1).

The Jazz need to continue to prosper while the can. In March the road games, back-to-backs and playoff teams are lined up to give the Jazz all they can handle. Let’s hope they’re up to it!

Keep winning and hope for some help.

No matter what their final seed, they only have to win 16 playoff games!

Easy!

Right?

Because of their 23 losses, other teams control their destiny, until the playoffs.

They could be the team nobody wants to play after the regular season ends!

GO JAZZ!!!

Jazzaholic

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Trueblue on February 23, 2009 said:

I dont agree with this post. To me the Jazz are three games in the loss column out of homecourt advantage in the playoffs. You don’t need to add up all of the losses that need to happen in the western conference for the Jazz to be able to get homecourt. They are just three out in the loss column. Everything is going the Jazz way right now with the recent win streak and Boozer coming back. Confidence is at the highest level its been this year. At the same time, Phoenix and Houston just lost arguably their best players, the Hornets have struggled as of late, Dallas is bassically holding serve, Denver has stumbled a bit, and the Blazers have a fairly tough schedule remaining. There are 26 games left! Homecourt in the west is up for grabs, and the Jazz are clicking at the right time. If they can win some games on the road, there is no reason why they cant make up ground-They have 1/3 of the season to make up three losses!!!!

BasketballDan on February 23, 2009 said:

Right On Trueblue! + 1 Let’s hope the Jazz can keep winning and get one of the top 4 seeds in the West. I think we could catch Denver for the division crown. It feels good to be a Jazz fan right now (apart from losing LHM of course).

J R Stewart on February 23, 2009 said:

As I pointed out, it’s not just one team you’re behind for home court. You have to leap frog #7, #6, #5, #4 and keep #9 from overtaking you.

Add them all up to get your answer.

Jazzaholic

TrueNBAfan on February 23, 2009 said:

JR- Well, when they are all basically tied, its not as hard as it seems. You just have to play better than them…its not like ten games divide them.

J R Stewart on February 23, 2009 said:

You’re right they are all close, but they do have to lose more games than the Jazz do. The true test will be when they hit the road. The last month and a half of the season is the toughest of the entire year. If Denver continues to get injuries, like Nene, the Jazz could easily overtake them, but you also have Portland in the same Division.
So…again, it’s not just one team!
I hope they win out and those teams in front of the Jazz lose, but until April 14th, it’s still a crap shoot.
Remember how the Rockets had Yao go down last year and we all thought they were done, just get the fork? They just kept winning and winning, despite the injuries.
Remember how the Jazz had a big lead and folded two years ago and the Rockets moved into home court with the 5th seed?

What you need to do is bookmark this blog and on April 15th come back and give me a back alley beating, which I’d be happy to receive, because I’d love to be wrong, in the right direction, with a better seed.

Jazzaholic

J R Stewart on February 23, 2009 said:

Also, you have to lose less than they do. You can play better than they do, but if they don’t lose more than you do, you don’t gain any ground.

But, the Jazz are playing the best they have all year. Can they carry it to the road games and the back-to-backs where they have had a miserable record?

GO JAZZ!

Jazzaholic

Boondock Saint on February 24, 2009 said:

I have been looking at the standings and agree with both your takes on this. How can I do that? Its simple, yes its close like Trueblue says but J.R. is right….other teams need to lose and we need to win. Bottom line…the Jazz can get the 4th seed but it isn’t going to be easy. Denver, currently on a 3 game losing streak without Nene, need to continue losing and the Blazers need to drop a few. Meanwhile, the Jazz need to keep winning under historically tougher circumstances for the Jazz (i.e. road games and back to backs). So here is to hoping for the 4th seed .

Brian McCann on February 24, 2009 said:

I agree that it is an uphill battle, but actually, to get the fourth seed, Utah just needs to beat out Denver and Portland. They have two games left against Denver-both must wins, and one against Portland. There are way too many games left to say the Jazz will most likely be a sixth/seventh seed. For one they are healthy and playing well, and for two, there are a lot of teams right now that are dealing with injuries and momentum swinging the other way.

J R Stewart on February 24, 2009 said:

Brian:

The Jazz CAN do it!

I guess my point is Portland and Denver, and many of the rest, control their own destiny, as far as the Jazz are concerned. The Jazz have to have some help. Head to head games allow the Jazz that control, if they are separated by 1 loss or less. Winning the tie-breaker is worth another loss.

But, if you are behind, and both teams win every game, you’re still behind, despite playing great.

I hope the other teams have injuries, like the Jazz have had, have bad games, run into hot teams etc, to allow the Jazz to get to the #2 seed, but they have to get some help and continue to win, on the road, where they’ve had little success in the past.

Jazzaholic

Linda McFarland on February 24, 2009 said:

I’m glad we have you guys to debate and figure this out!!!!!!!!!! How Complicated!!

J R Stewart on February 24, 2009 said:

Trail Blazers and Mavircks lost tonight. That puts the Jazz and the Mavs with 23 loses, 1 up on the Suns, 1 behind the Hornets, 2 behind Portland and Houston, 3 behind Denver.
So, the Jazz are getting help, but they can’t lose!

Jazzaholic

canadajazz on February 26, 2009 said:

Thank you, Celtics.
After losing to the Jazz, they easily knocked off Phoenix and Denver.
That’s the same as head-to-head wins against the Suns and Nuggets.
Last night’s loss to the Clippers proves Boston is only human -not unlike the Jazz, losing to Washington or Oklahoma earlier in the season.
All this drama does make you pay attention to match-ups across the league. For example, can the lowly Raptors upset Phoenix this weekend? I’ll be pulling for Toronto for extra reasons.
Stay tuned. 6th seed isn’t out of the question. A month ago, just getting in the playoffs seemed far-fetched.

J R Stewart on February 26, 2009 said:

The Jazz hit the Timberwolves on a back to back and injured.
How many times has that happened in the last month?
Despite that, the starters played lazy defense and almost blew the game.
If it hadn’t been for the bench and Brewer stepping up, they could have easily chalked up a loss to a tired, undermanned, non-playoff team.
I hope Boozer will be back to his offensive level and an improved defensive level before that Eastern road trip.
4 losses separate 4-9. The Jazz have gotten lots of help, but must not lose.

Jazzaholic

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