Statistical Exploration: CJ Miles
Posted by Andy Larsen on February 25, 2009

I started to write a post about Larry Miller, but really, I couldn’t do it. I was listening, though, to his interviews with David Locke on 1320 KFAN, and they spent a few minutes discussing CJ Miles, and his future. So instead of an introspective piece on the death of Larry, I’m writing yet another in the Statistical Exploration Series: this time on CJ Miles.
Locke opined that CJ couldn’t jump off one foot, and that would hurt him. I’m just not sure that’s true; see this video. In fairness to Locke, this interview was about a year and a half ago, so maybe its a skill he has recently developed.
That timeline also means that it was before CJ’s extension, 4 years and 15 million. Was that a good deal?
Let’s find out.
In baseball statistics, there’s been a lot of work done to determine the value of a win for a team. There hasn’t been the same level of research in basketball, but we can do some rough estimates to get an idea of CJ’s real value to the team. Basically, we should first find out how many wins CJ has accumulated, and then multiply that by the value of a win to receive his dollar value to the team. That will give us a number of dollars, which we can compare to his current contract, which pays him 3.7 million per year.
How many “wins” a player has is a strange concept, because no player is a sole contributor to a win. What we’re trying to calculate is a player’s contribution to his team’s wins. The idea, then, is to split up Utah’s total wins so far this season and distribute them among players based on how helpful they’ve been to that goal. I’m not the one doing these calculations, thank goodness, but the important point is that they’re possible. According to Basketball Prospectus, CJ has produced 2.5 wins for the Jazz so far this season. If you extrapolate that to 82 games, that number becomes 3.7 wins.
So now that we have that number, we also want to know how much a win is worth, financially, in the NBA. I’m just going to quote from the Wages of Wins Journal here:
We could say that the value of one win in the NBA is simply the amount of money the league paid its players divided by how many wins these players produced in the regular season.
Such an approach makes three assumptions. I am assuming that all players in the NBA are collectively paid what they are worth (which may be true if the union bargained effectively), players are only paid to produce wins (which is a reasonable assumption given the research cited above), and the value of a win is the same for all teams (okay, not true, but two out of three ain’t too bad).
Let me update the numbers for the 2007-08 season. Again, teams paid more than $2 billion in salary. With 1,230 regular season wins, this works out to $1,671,230 per win.
That makes sense, but let’s evaluate his assumptions:
1. His first assumption, that NBA players are collectively paid what they’re worth, is probably approximately accurate. Some teams in the league make a ton of money, some are losing a ton of money. Finances aren’t always public, so its difficult to get more in depth than that.
2. Players are only paid to produce wins. While Jerry Sloan might add the phrase, “and keep their mouths shut”, that’s basically true. Helping out in the community is nice, but it probably doesn’t add to the owner’s income like wins do.
3. The value of a win is the same for all teams. As he states, probably not true. Again, there’s this idea of “important wins”. For example, if you’re the Sacramento Kings, adding a player like Shaq would not help you all that much. Sure, he will add wins to your team, but he isn’t going to be enough to get you to the playoffs, where real money is made both directly and indirectly. To a playoff team like the Jazz, marginal wins are critical because they both increase the probability of making the playoffs, as well as result in a higher seed. If the Jazz get a higher seed, they’re much more likely to get into additional rounds of the playoffs. Again, huge payout for the owner.
As a result, each win is probably worth more to the Jazz than the $1,671,230 per win figure specified earlier. Nevertheless, it is difficult to quantify exactly how much, so we’ll use that number.
So, all that’s left is to multiply CJ’s 3.7 wins per season by $1,671,230. That means CJ’s value is about 6,183,551 million dollars, well above his actual salary. That number seems reasonable, actually. CJ’s season’s value has far surpassed any previous season’s, and last summer he was offered 3.7 million per year. If teams had an opportunity to sign him this upcoming summer, some team would probably look at his performance thus far and offer him the full MLE, about 6 million dollars.
Luckily for the Jazz, CJ will be with us for the next 3 seasons, at a bargain.
9 Comments
Boondock Saint on February 25, 2009 said:
Ramin….that made SENSE?! Okay, re-read it still slightly confused but I do think Miles will get better and matters to the team. He is still a little rough around the edges but I think he has and will continue to add more facets to his game.
Andy Larsen on February 25, 2009 said:
Boondock, here’s the really simple explanation:
CJ Miles is worth 3.7 wins per year to the Jazz. A win is worth about 1.6 million. Therefore, CJ is worth more than his current contract.
The rest of it is just procedure.
Ramin on February 25, 2009 said:
If you go to the Basketball Prospectus site, it has the stats for all of the players. My comment about it making sense is that it’s the only stat I’ve seen that accounts for offensive production as well as defensive abilities. Miles and Okur actually have similar numbers per minute played using this metric, which makes sense. Miles may not score as much, but he sure as heck does a better job on defense. Where as people like Williams and Millsap have MUCH higher numbers…which once again, makes sense given their abilities on defense. The reason I like CJ is that he has a HUGE potential in the scoring department…enough in my opinion to blow Okur’s offensive production out of the water, we just need to give him time to settle into the starting lineup and learn from his mistakes. For as many minutes as he’s played, he’s already made a ton of progress this year.
Boondock Saint on February 25, 2009 said:
Thanks Andy…appreciate the clarification. I got that part
I just got lost in the rest of it. And Ramin, I agree with you about Miles scoring potential and think it is completely a matter of getting comfortable starting, knowing the system, and playing time. He is also getting better at moving without the ball but still has improvements to make in that area but I’m confident he can do it.
CC on February 26, 2009 said:
FINALLY — after years of reading here all the things wrong and opinions of others that are so negative towards one or more of the players on the Utah Jazz team — FINALLY Andy comes up with a positive voice……… Thank you Andy for your input and insight ….
CJ’s first year here ( 4 years ago) he sat on the bench watching game after game once in a while he would get put in for a few seconds at the end and maybe hit a 3 point shot that would get the fans standing and cheering… I have been CJ’s biggest fan since his draft to the Utah Jazz ( and remember yelling give CJ the ball even when he was on the bench, others aroound me would remind me he wasn’t on the court and I would reply … well he should be) So why am I CJ’s biggest fand Why ?? because I love to cheer for the underdog maybe, or just because at the time he was drafted to Utah I didn’t have just one player I wanted to see improve over years of hard play and practice, or maybe it was because here is a guy that just came out of high school and has moved to a different state, differernt way of life and will be expected to live up to all those before him that played that same position on the Utah Jazz team………. oh and will have to endure the comments of the Utah Jazz fans and still remain positive and play his best……… Best he could play was what he had learned in high school not in the NBA………… CJ has come a long way in 4 short years and has learned how to be an NBA professional…….sure he has a long ways to go but if you ask anyone of the guys that play on the Utah Jazz they will say I did my best but I can and will do better …………. they all learn from their mistakes game after game but they have all learned how to play as a team for the fans and for the win………. WOW no wonder we love our Utah Jazz……..
Go Jazz we are once again headed towards another play off round and maybe just maybe this time with an all healthy team take what we all know we are and that is CHAMPIONS…….. ring or no ring we all know the strength of our Utah Jazz……………..
Derrick Daye on April 02, 2009 said:
From Kevin O’Connor via email…
The fourth year is our option, but it’s basically a three-year (guaranteed contract). What we saw was a young player who was 20 years old who had been in the league for three years and that was still improving. We expect him to continue to get better. I think he made a big jump this year; he can add some strength, he can add some quickness, which I think he can do through some exercise. I think this summer is going to be important for him to come back in even better shape than he’s been in. His improvement has been important for us as a franchise, both for him and for us to have a player come in and be able to play. This year, early on, Matt Harpring really wasn’t playing. That was something that kind of forced our hand about playing (C.J.) at the beginning, starting him, and bringing Andre (Kirilenko)i off the bench. Then when Andrei was hurt, we had to rely on (C.J.) and Ronnie a little bit more than we probably anticipated we would. This year has been a good year for (C.J.), he’s played through a lot of things and it’s been a good year for us.
CC on April 02, 2009 said:
Sometimes I feel as if I am the only fan of CJ Miles…….it’s nice ( very important ) to see Kevin O’Conner as a CJ fan as well……. There is room for growth in each and every player on the Jazz team.. We all see now that injuries can hurt even after the healing process. We are still finding out who works well and when they work their best. This year is a turning point and next year will be a milestone…
Stay ” True to the Blue “
Andy Larsen on April 02, 2009 said:
Thanks, Derrick, for that round of comments from KOC. That’s why I think C.J. was such a good signing, if he is worth more than he is owed now, and will continue to improve, then we should get positive value out of his contract.
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Ramin on February 25, 2009 said:
Finally! A statistic that makes sense. And Miles is only going to get better.