The Flip Side

Posted by Keith Haney on April 16, 2009

After the Jazz loss a couple of weeks ago to Minnesota, I was asking myself, “Why did I just renew my season tickets for last year?” It took some thinking, but I’ve figured out the answer and I’m glad I did renew. I know a lot of fans are pretty down on the team right now, and they have reason to be, but there is hope. Not just for the playoffs this year, but for the team as a whole. Here’s why.

First, let’s look at the playoffs.

I see a few ways the Jazz could actually beat the Lakers.

1) Get the Lakers into foul trouble. As evidenced in the season finale matchup, when the Jazz are clicking on offense and attacking the basket, they can get the Lakers into foul trouble. The key is to attack Bynum and Gasol in trouble. They had them on the ropes at halftime in that game with a bunch of their players with 3 fouls. By the end of the 3rd quarter though, nobody had 4 as the Jazz settled for jumpers. They have to play physical and attack all four quarters. The slashes to the basket have to come from Williams and Brewer. If they are able to get to the rack regularly, they could steal a game in LA.

2) Steal the ball. The Jazz are tied for the league lead in steals per game at 8.8. I’m not expecting Boozer or Okur to turn into shot blockers on defense, so they need to flourish defensively in a way that’s been proven – getting turnovers.

3) Don’t turn the ball over or foul too much. This is the flip side to points 1 & 2. If the Jazz get the Lakers into foul trouble, they can’t return the favor themselves. They also can’t turn the ball over. The Lakers are the other team the Jazz are tied with for steals. They can’t give them extra opportunities.

4) Stop giving up the three pointers. OK. Maybe this isn’t going to happen. A guy can dream right? Sloan’s defensive scheme just isn’t going to change on this point despite the rest of the league improving dramatically in 3 point attempts and makes over the years. Will someone please have Sloan read this analysis? What does that article tell me? It means the Jazz need to take more threes and need to limit opponents attempts. I’d rather have Gasol beat them than Sasha Vujacic.

Second, let’s look ahead to next year.

Say the Jazz aren’t able to make it through the Lakers. I won’t blame them. I realistically think we’re headed for a Lakers vs Cavs finals this year anyway. With the Cavs winning in 6 games. I’m excited for next season because I’m excited for this summer. It’s going to be a crazy one that I’ll delve into more in a future blog. For now, a couple of thoughts…

1) Carlos Boozer and the Jazz are in a win-win situation here. If Boozer opts out, the Jazz have the option to sign a defensive minded Power Forward and / or a defensive Small Forward and keep Paul Millsap. This would be a good thing for the team. I’ll give my thoughts on who the Jazz could get another day. One of them is a Laker.

If Boozer stays put, he will be completely healed from his knee surgery and presumably stronger. He will also be PLAYING FOR A CONTRACT. I can’t express enough what this does for a player’s effort. The league is riddled with players who were able to grab outrageous contracts based on one excellent season. If Boozer wants to get paid in the summer of 2010 instead of 2009, he is going to need a major comeback next year. That means averaging 23 – 10, playing through pain, putting in an effort on defense, and using his “inside voice” when he plays. Well, maybe not that last one, but am I the only one who has noticed that Boozer has the lungs of an opera singer? I swear I can hear every word he says when he’s on the court. AND 1!!!!!

2) A healthy team is a winning team. There is no way that next season could be worse than this one for injuries. Let’s say the Jazz had half the injury woes they did this year, how many more wins would they have? 5? 8? Remember, 7 more wins gets the Jazz the 2nd seed in the West this year.

3) The Jazz could be “buyers” in a time when most of the league’s teams are selling. Only the Grizzlies, Thunder, Pistons, Hawks, Raptors, Kings, and Trailblazers will have cap space. I only suspect that Oklahoma, Toronto, and Detroit will be spending money. Sacramento is in financial chaos, Portland and Atlanta have to save cap space to keep the young teams they have together.

What that means for Utah is a chance to draw a major free agent should people on the current team opt out. If Korver, Okur, and Boozer all opt out (a definite possibility if players get greedy and agents convince them to get paid this year before the salary cap gets worse in 2011) the Jazz would only be on the books for a guaranteed $46.3M. The lowered luxury tax is forecasted to be $69.4M so we know the Jazz won’t exceed that so they would have $23M left over. Let’s assume the Jazz would then resign Millsap for 4 yrs / $7M. They could then use the extra $16M available for a bonafide superstar or pair of players. Take your pick from this list. How about a combination of Ben Gordon and Anderson Varajeo? Seems like a good fit to me – get a scorer and shot blocker to replace Korver and Okur.

I know a lot of Jazz fans would hate to see players like Okur or Korver go. At some point, you have to admit that the team as currently constructed is probably not going to win a championship. Korver is on the downside of his career and the Jazz made a big investment in CJ Miles last Summer. I think CJ makes the leap next year. He’ll be 23. I often forget that he should be a senior in college right now. Remember, he wouldn’t have to make the leap to All-Star, he would just have to be as good as Korver is this season to be successful. Not a difficult task.

So that’s it. I renewed my season tickets because I believe this organization wants to win and is willing to take the steps to do that.

On the flip side of all this unbridled optimism, the Jazz could get swept by the Lakers, stand pat with their roster in the summer, lose Millsap to free agency, and put together another mediocre season in 2010. I don’t think that’s going to happen. So cheer up Jazz fans. There is hope for the playoffs and for next year. And if you don’t believe that, wait until you read my upcoming blog on your 2011 NBA Champions – The Utah Jazz. You will believe.

11 Comments

DeronWIlliams4President on April 16, 2009 said:

I like where your head’s at Keith! But I can’t believe you left out one of the most important details! Experience! If the Jazz can push this series to 6 or 7 games, even if they lose, for our current roster that experience will sky-rocket their abilities. I’d say the now and for the next couple years it’s a dang good time to be a Jazz fan. I don’t care what you nay-sayers, say about my optimism!

Boondock Saint on April 16, 2009 said:

Well thought out Keith. I completley agree with your “keys to the game” against the Lakers. I agree with most of your ideas about next year and have been looking at the money myself. I would strongly suggest keeping Korver and Memo. I think that they compliment Jerry’s system and both fit in well with Utah, both the team and the community. Really, I don’t care what they do with Boozer but mostly they HAVE TO KEEP MILLSAP. He is the lowest paid player currently and one of the few who brings energy, talent and a desire to win ever night. Kevin O’Connor might have to make some tough decisions in the off season but hopefully we can focus on the playoffs for a little longer than one round.

Dallan on April 16, 2009 said:

Easily we will keep Okur and Korver. Its not our decision to let them go its theirs. Thats also with Boozer, they all have the option to stay or leave. So we will be fine with those two and i feel boozer will stay also casue he is going to want to show everyone that he can still play like Keith said its going to be huge for him to have a good year but i think we need to hope he will leave so we can someone that is stronger and wants to play defense. Honestly Lamar Odom? That would be a wonderful addition to our team i dont know if it would happen but hey that would be awesome!

Cody Daouglas on April 16, 2009 said:

i am i big jazz fan but there going to get sweept when they play in LA Kobe is going to shoot 30 free throws and we dont play defencs particuly Boozer i cant wait tell he is gone we all no he wants out but he doesnt have to make it look so obvious he scores on offence and he walks back on defence pahtetic

Levi on April 17, 2009 said:

I would love to see Lamar Odom in Utah! I don’t think it will happen, but it would be awesome.. Lamar may change teams, some say that the Lakers will not be able to keep him and Trevor Ariza, but I think it would take a big offer to get either to leave a true championship contender, plus I don’t see Odom wanting to come to Utah. I could be wrong, but I just don’t see it.

Chace on April 17, 2009 said:

wow, why cant this guy be the new coach at utah? i think he knows more of what to do with a team than the whole organization does! i wouldnt mind seeing korver and okur leave, i personally like both of them. but, kyle does shoot a little to fast, (never takes the extra second he has to square up) but when he is hot, he is HOT. he cant miss! unfortunately, he is streaky. i think we need a point guard that can back up D will, someone who CAN score like Gordon. We also need a defensive presence in the middle. ANY defense will help. which is also a nice thing about korver, he does try too take charges.

D-will, Boozer (cause i dont think he will leave), CJ miles, Millsap, and Anderson Varajeo
STARTING

Ben Gordon and Lamar as subs. Assuming we can get these players.
I also think the Jazz should try for Amauri Stoudamire, Or Chris Bosh if still possible. These players would fit well with D-will.

Chace on April 17, 2009 said:

oh yeah, and STOP PLAYING BREVIN KNIGHT! LET RONNIE PRICE PLAY!

deron williams fan for life on April 19, 2009 said:

I agree chace they should play price instead of brevin beacause brevin can only pass and if he gets lucky maybe get a free throw line jumper. At least price could at least shoot some three c mon brevin will just airball if he is too far away from the basket.

Rick on April 19, 2009 said:

Why doesnt price play he’s awesome?

Don on April 20, 2009 said:

What the hell kind of insight is this?!?!?! So basically what you’re saying is that the Jazz should try to get fouls on the other team, try to steal the ball, try not to foul, and don’t let them shoot 3s?!?!?! Isn’t that what every basketball team on the planet earth tries to do?!?!?

Here’s a few great tidbits you missed:

1) Jazz should try to rebound when someone misses a shot.. This leads to, what is called, a “possession”.

2) Jazz should try to shoot before the shot clock expires, otherwise, it’s a turnover.

3) Jazz should try not to miss shots. Made shots count towards your team’s score in the game.

4) Jazz should really try to have more points than the Lakers at the end of the game. If successful the team receives a “W” which stands for a win.

Daniel on April 20, 2009 said:

You’re a little off in your thought on this summer’s free agency prospects.

“The NBA circulated a memo to all teams before last week’s trading deadline projecting a likely salary-cap reduction for next season. In the memo, the NBA reportedly projected a 2009 salary cap of $57.3 million, down from this year’s cap of $58.68 million. That would put the tax line at less than $69.5M.” RealGM

The number to understand in being able to sign someone else’s free agents is $57.3MM, the salary cap. With current salary commitments of $46.3MM + Millsap’s $7MM, that places the Jazz at $53.3MM. Just $4MM below the cap. The tax line is important in the big picture, but useless unless we’re talking about signing our own free agents (either to keep them or in a sign&trade).

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