Statistical Exploration – Deron Williams

Posted by Andy Larsen on May 12, 2009
Andy Larsen


There’s no doubt in my mind that Deron Williams is the best player on the Utah Jazz. Despite this, Deron is somewhat disappointing statistically. Don’t get me wrong, I like Deron, but he has some pretty glaring statistical flaws that prevent him from being a top 5 player in the NBA. Besides, writing this post is more fun than writing a Deron love-fest. Let’s get started:

Turnovers: Deron is third in the NBA in turnovers per game, behind Stephen Jackson and Dwyane Wade. Stephen Jackson, of course, is not a great player, but Dwyane Wade is. Wade, though, uses far more possessions than Deron does, 2177 to 1304 over the course of the season. Chris Paul, by the way, is 14th on the TO/G list, and also used more possesions than Deron. Despite this, Deron still has top 10 assist to turnover ratios. However, if he could turn the ball over once less per game, he could be so much better.

Defense: The stats also show Deron as a slightly below-average defensive player. He doesn’t have to steal the ball as often as Chris Paul to be effective, but then he needs to focus on staying in front of his man. Last year he got blown by on occasion. His opponents average a 16.3 PER against, remember 15 is league-average. Subjectively, it seems if he focuses on his defense in important possessions, he gets the job done.

On Court/Off Court: Deron’s on court/off court stats, also known as +/-, are simply not in the same ballpark as the truly elite players in the NBA. Chris Paul’s +/-, for instance, is about +17 per 100 possessions, Deron is at +1.2. I’m not quite sure why this is. Maybe it’s Deron’s lack of focus at times, maybe it’s the defense, and maybe it’s just that our backup point guards are so much better than New Orleans’. Actually, it’s probably a combination of all three.

Rebounding: I wish Deron was a better rebounder. He’s 6′3”, so he certainly has the size, but he doesn’t go after rebounds like a Jason Kidd or Rajon Rondo. Deron is 27th(!) in the league in RPG for point guards, 2.9 a game. Brevin Knight, he of 5′10” in tall shoes, averages more rebounds per 48 minutes than Deron. Chris Paul, of similar stature to Brevin Knight, averages 5.5 a game. Again, I don’t know why this is. I would postulate that Jerry Sloan’s “get back on defense” strategy hurts rebounding guards, but then Brevin Knight does so much better than Deron.

Notice how I compared him to Chris Paul in every category? I didn’t mean to do that, but he’s the yardstick to compare to Deron, and Paul smokes him in these categories. Of course, I completely ignored Deron’s strong points, so I’ll avoid making judgment on that debate. Still, these are the things I’d like to see Deron improve in so he truly becomes the top 5 player in the NBA he can be.

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23 Comments

J R Stewart on May 12, 2009 said:

You’re right on.

Deron has a turnover and defense problem. His defense in the last half of the 4th quarter, in a close game, shows how he can defend, if he puts forth the effort. Frequently, his rotation to the open 3 is anything from a friendly wave, 10′ away, to a belly touch. His on the ball problems come with the pic-n-roll, as it does for most players, which is a function of our big men. One on one, his defense is pretty darn good.

If he would play D in the first 3/4ths of the game, like the last 1/4, and demand the same from his teammates, the Jazz would be one of the better defensive teams in the league. ‘D’ is all about effort, throughout the game.

This is not an uncommon problem, The Mailman could be a great defender, when the game was close, but, especially in the last half of his career, he would do the same thing…coast for 3/4 and play 1/4.

Jazzaholic

Dallan on May 12, 2009 said:

I am sorry but i dont think or feel that you can compare Chris Paul and Deron. For the simple reason that they have different bodies, they have different systems so some coaches stress different things its not derons fault that he does what the coach wants him to do. And its not chris pauls either. they both have different flaws and different strenghts. Deron is much bigger and stronger.Chris Paul is more of a speed point guard so obviously he is going to get more steals and be able to stay in front of the other point guards better. Deron does ok but he is not as fast as Chris Paul or some of the other small speed point guards. Also for him to rebound he has Boozer and Milsap there to rebound so if i was him i would not want to go up against them to fight for a rebound.

Caleb Hicks on May 12, 2009 said:

I agree with Dallan. It is a tough comparison to make. But I think it sheds light on perhaps the greatest example of when Deron can be an all-star defender. Look at games when he plays against Chris Paul. Few people in the NBA can guard Paul like D-Will has. But, as mentioned in the article, it’s about motivation not just throughout the game, but throughout the season.

Boondock Saint on May 12, 2009 said:

Yep…defense measures effort. Period.

mike on May 12, 2009 said:

I think deron is a great defender when motivated. He was pretty effective against Kobe and especially paul. With that said, cant really compare d-will with cp3. as we can see if d will has to carry the team every night he can easily average 24-28 ppg. Its just utah has a better supporting cast.

Thats right faster point guards get steals but in doing so paul has to sag away from his man more to get into the passing lanes which is why his man scores on him more often no to mention the bigger guards like deron who will take advantage and post him up and overpower him to the basket. but he does make up for it with 3 steals and his turn over rate is low. Deron on the other hand is a strong point guard so he is better than paul in taking bumps and finishing also a much better one on one defender. but non the less his size makes him a bit slower as evidence when he has to play a smaller guard who usually cuts the corner pretty fast he often gets beat.

As for defense I agree Defense measures effort, but in this case it isn’t the individual who’s at fault its the team. In team defense everyone needs to read each other and know when to switch, close out and when to help. If just one person fails at his job in this team defense the whole team suffers. If someone is beat and the help defender fails to show up than the system is beaten. This whole team defense revolves around chemistry and solid communication. Take the laker series for example did anyone noticed how well they communicated to each other. That’s why our offense sucked ass when it was a half court set and we weren’t pushing the ball up the court this allowed the lakers to communicate and work their defense efficiently, something we should be doing.

Last thing is rebounding, YOU CAN NOT RELY ON TWO INDIVIDUAL REBOUNDING THE BALL. REBOUNDS ARE A TEAM EFFORT EVERYONE REBOUNDS. The only time when you don’t rebound is when your man is streaking down the court. Deron can be solid 6-8 rebound guy. Example Jason Kid. Yes you can rely on paul and boozer but hey its a big court and they cant be everywhere at the same time.

Mal on May 12, 2009 said:

Way to go Andy! Spitting the truth is the best way to go! I love Deron too, but there are a few things he could work on to set himself apart as one of the elite players of the game. Nice work Andy.

howard on May 12, 2009 said:

Just Make sure PAUL MILLSAP STAYS WITH THE JAZZ!!!! i dont care about anything else. I doubt most jazz fans want boozer back. Your foolish if you do. DWILL will take care of turnovers in time.. people forget he is still young.

TY on May 12, 2009 said:

Agreed. Let boozer walk, sign and trade.. whatever it takes. Get rid of him! MILLSAP 100% Rid of boozer, rid of boozer, rid of boozer, rid of boozer, rid of boozer.

Ryan on May 12, 2009 said:

Deron is a good defender but he doesnt have the same shot blockers in the paint as other teams have which causes D not to be as good but all good defenders have low post defense and good shot blockers and d will doesnt have that like chris paul who has chandler

JayD on May 12, 2009 said:

I love D-Will but he does have some things that he needs to work on . He needs to be more effort in his 3 point defense as well as everone else . It always made me mad when he gave up on the perimeter defense . I think that he needs to be a more vocal leader . And I hope that he works on his shooting , it seemed that he was out of sorts in our in our end of season slump ..
I know that he is defenatley a future Hall Of famer . I am glad that we have him instead of CP3 . He fits in our system better .
Thats my thoughts .

John Lowden on May 12, 2009 said:

I think you have to look at the entire team. Deron is a great point gaurd. In games where the entire team plays great as a team, then Deron shines. It is a team game and the entire team needs to get focused and play as a team and play good ball on both ends of the court. When this happens Deron is the best PG in the league. This season in the second half of the one game against Denver the Jazz were bing kicked in the first half and came back and won the game in the second half, Deron was a better player than Chauncy Billips in that game, also late in the season when the JAZZ defeated Dallas, Deron was much better than Jason Kid. So point blank, when the entire team plays better Deron will shine like the true superstar that he really is. He can’t win the game alone.

John (in Virginia)

Ernie on May 12, 2009 said:

lOl i hate to say it but boozer has to go. Okay i understand you have a center that could stretch the defense and shoot 3s. So why have a undersized pf come on -_-

John Lowden on May 13, 2009 said:

I agree with Earnie. I don’t care what anyone says, Milsap is better than Boozer. To let Boozer go would free up alot of cash to be able to bring on a couple of hard nose veterans, or the Jazz ought to maybe do a sign and trade and/or maybe move to a higher spot in the next draft by using boozer as bait, or something in between. Injuried do happen, but over the time Boozer has been with the JAZZ, how many games has he missed due to injuries ? Probably at least 40 percent. So I think that it is time to do one of the above with Boozer, afterall he can leave and the Jazz get nothing in return except the money the save that may be used to get other players, and while at it, give Milsap a raise.

John (in VA)

J R Stewart on May 13, 2009 said:

Boozer has missed about 34% of the games.

Jazzaholic

skinsfan on May 18, 2009 said:

Did anyone notice when they announced the all NBA teams. Deron didn’t even finish in the top 5. Why is that? Deron’s not a good leader. The reason why the Jazz are so inconsistent. Look at the best guards in the league. They all take over in critical situations, all the time. Yeah Deron does it here and there but not every night. Look at Tony Parker, Chris Paul, Chauncey Billups, even Jason Kidd and he’s like 90 years old. These guys all play hearts out every night and lead there teams whether they want to or not. Deron not so much even though he could dominate games like a Kobe or a Lebron. Maybe he’s trying too hard to get his teammates involved. But the Jazz go as Deron does. Thus, the inconsistency. He wants to be the best he better play like the best and not disappear so much throughout a game. In my mind he’s the best gaurd out there. No one can defend him when he’s nasty but his nastiness capacity must not be very much. When Deron can step it up to the next level so will the Jazz.

John Lowden on May 18, 2009 said:

Say what you want to about D-Will, but he comes out every game with his game face on. If each and every player on the team did the same and played at the energy level as he does, the Jazz would be going to the finals this year, so all you people that disagree with me just don’t know Basketball, i have coached the game for 40 plus years, not on a professional level, but the way i able to put a team together, it is always a winner, and i can recognize GREAT talent when i see it.

John (in Virginia)

Ryan on May 18, 2009 said:

John you are wright d will always comes in the game with a game face on and not to mention derons numbers were better then pauls numbers in the playoffs

brittin earl on May 28, 2009 said:

d will needs to look to score more for the jazz. i can understand if he i sup above the other team in points to distribute the ball but when the jazz are down he needs to look to score or good open inside passes. DWILL is my favorit player in the nba no questions

Drew on May 28, 2009 said:

Deron did the best job on Kobe Defensively in the playoffs when he was switched on him. As a point Guard he has to guard the quickest guys in the league, and doesn’t have a legitimate big man to alter shots in the middle. Rebounds have you noticed where Deron goes when the shot goes up almost to half court, The Jazz have had a very under rated fast break game. Deron’s job is to facilitate the fast break which makes it difficult to get alot of defensive boards, and it isn’t his role on the team.

John Lowden on May 28, 2009 said:

I don’t agree with you Britton Earl. A point gaurd’s job is not to score alot of points. A PG is to make everyone on the team better, dish out the assist and get everyone involved and be the floor general. If a PG gets 10 to 12 points per game and dishes out 15 to 20 assist is better than a PG scoring 25 points per game and handing out 4 or 5 assist.

coco on June 22, 2009 said:

i saw d-will at the lake sandhollow resivor lake to be exact it was awesome got a picture with him too.

Brittin Earl on June 27, 2009 said:

as i said, when the jazz are down, deron needs to burst out and make baskets happen. i agree that his job is to pass the ball and get assists, but, why have a player that can score and get the team points and not use him for that????!!!! honestly tell me

John Lowden on June 29, 2009 said:

A point guard should not be expected to do it all, to run the floor, dish out assist and be the ultimate scoring machine on the floor. Thats why they call the TWO guard the SHOOTING guard and the point guard the POINT Guard. Back in the Stockton days he , even after he became the STARTING point guard, he was a great PG, yet it was like two to three years as the starter before he hardly ever broke 15 or 20 points a game, for the first few years he hardly got into double figures most games, yet he was one of the best PG’s of all time and always will be.

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