Highly Accurate NBA Predictions

Posted by Joey Parker on September 30, 2009

I decided to write an NBA Predictions post for two reasons:  1) It’s fun! 2) I want recorded evidence if I happen to have predicted this season correctly. And if I get all these guesses wrong, hopefully I can hack the Jazzbots server and erase this post forever.

I have ranked each team in each conference according to predicted finish. I also added my two cents along the way. Hopefully you can spare a couple hours to read this 1600 word post. (I feel like Bill Simmons!)

NBA Western Conference

1. LA Lakers- Thanks to the Memphis Grizzlies, the Lakers will likely be at the top of the West for at least another year or two. (Rant: If you give away the final piece of the championship puzzle- Pau Gasol- to a conference rival, which makes that team a perennial favorite for the next 5 years, aren’t you basically admitting that you should just fold up your franchise? Does Memphis have NO HOPE of competing within 5 years? A trade this STUPID should literally get your franchise taken away from you. They should sell off the pieces and pretend it never existed.   OK, I feel a little better now…) I still think essentially trading Ariza for Artest was a bad move, but they will still probably be just fine as long as Kobe and the ill-gotten Pau remain healthy.
2. San Antonio Spurs- This ranking is totally dependent on San Antonio staying relatively healthy . If Manu is hurt, or if Timmy  ages 10 years all-the-sudden, or if Parker or Jefferson gets hurt, this team will fall back into the pack in the West.
3. Utah Jazz- Yeah, I’m a homer!  So what? If we avoid injuries and Boozer-drama, we definitely have the pieces to get the 2 or 3 seed.
4. Denver Nuggets- They are still the same old Thuggets, but having Billups from the beginning should be a big help to them.
5. Portland Trailblazers- I think people are going a little too nuts over the Blazers. Yeah, they have a lot of talent, and yeah, I think Andre Miller is a terrific addition, but I still think this team is a little too raw to make it to the #2 seed in the West, as some are predicting. Another overrated aspect of this team is their GM, Kevin Pritchard. The media treats this guy like he is the Einstein of GMs. Sure, he has made some good moves and he has put together a good team, but think about this: he passed on Deron Williams and Chris Paul (and drafted Martell Webster) because he already had Sebastian Telfair! Also, he drafted Greg Oden over Kevin Durant! Can you IMAGINE this Blazers team if they had Deron Williams and Kevin Durant to go along with Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge, etc?  SCARY!
6. Dallas Mavericks- You could say that Dallas did the best with what they had to work with. The problem is that they didn’t have a lot to work with. Yeah, they signed Shawn Marion- but he is well beyond his prime. They also signed a pair of players who never met their full potential in Tim Thomas and Drew Gooden. But, they let the Magic pull a fast one on them that lost them both Brandon Bass and Marcin Gortat. I’m sure the Mavs will be respectable, but they just do not have the firepower to do much of anything.
7. New Orleans Hornets- The Hornets are hurting due to the economy. They basically gave away Rasual Butler for nothing, in order to save money. They also made no major additions to their team. They did trade Chandler for Okafor, which was a plus. The Hornets are basically the Miami Heat-West. If they lose Chris Paul to an injury, they are DEAD. Same with the Heat and Dwyane Wade.  The fact that some people (John Hollinger, Marc Stein) are picking the Hornets to be better than the Jazz is an absolute joke!
8. Phoenix Suns- Oh what could have been… If only their owner had willing to spend some money the past few seasons.  This team has basically GIVEN AWAY Rajon Rondo, Luol Deng, Nate Robinson, and Rudy Fernandez just to save money. Can you imagine if they had teamed those players with Nash, Amare, and Marion? Wow! Now, poor, aging Steve Nash will have to fight for his life just to make the playoffs.
9. Oklahoma City Thunder- The Thunder have built this team from the ground up and they seem to be making all the right moves. Kevin Durant  is awesome. He is already surrounded by great, young talent. The question this year is if they can grow up quick enough to make the playoffs right now.  My guess is they won’t, but they will make it close.
10. LA Clippers- This is a team that, if things go well, could make the playoffs. The problem is: Do things EVER go well for the Clips? They have Blake Griffin, Baron Davis, Al Thornton, and a bunch of good role players. If this team was called something other than “the Clippers” they would probably be picked as the #8 seed by a lot of people.
11. Houston Rockets- Houston’s “Big 3” has been reduced to a Big  Zero. You gotta feel bad for Yao Ming- great player, good guy, but just cannot stay healthy. McGrady is out for training camp and probably won’t be back for at least a month or two. And Artest essentially got traded to the Lakers for Ariza. I love the Ariza move, but it does them no good until their other pieces come back. This team should still be good at defense, but I have no clue how they expect to score many points.
12. Memphis Grizzlies- As I mentioned in the Lakers section, I am not a fan of this team. I do feel bad for their fans though- all 20 of them…  This franchise makes the Clippers look respectable. That being said…they should at least be an interesting team to watch this year. They have a lot of odd pieces that will either make them really exciting or make them implode- AI, Rudy Gay, Randolph, Mayo.
13. Golden State Warriors- The official “Team Crazy” so far this year. They are having one of the most bumpy starts to training camp that I have ever seen.  Probably doesn’t help their chances in the West.
14. Minnesota Timberwolves- Can a team made up of all Point Guards make it to the playoffs?  We’ll find out this season!
15. Sacramento Kings- Like Thumper says: “If you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all.”

NBA Eastern Conference

1. Orlando Magic- Can you say LOADED?  This team did lose Turkoglu and Courtney Lee, but they gained Vince Carter, Matt Barnes, and Brandon Bass. When properly motivated, Vinsanity is still one of the best players in the league. With a team like this surrounding him?  Plenty of motivation.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers- They will be right there with Orlando for the #1 spot. We’ll have to see how Shaq affects this team- good or bad.
3. Boston Celtics- They are as talented as anyone but they have many questions regarding age, injuries (Garnett’s knee), and internal drama. The fact that they were considering trading Rondo,  one of the best PGs in the league, must mean that something isn’t right with him.
4. Atlanta Hawks- In the East, after the Magic, Cavs, and Celts, there is a HUGE drop. It’s basically the BIG 3, the Hawks, then a bunch of unknowns.
5. Washington Wizards- If their health holds up and their chemistry comes back, they might be really good. They added some really good players, including Mike Miller,  and they also are getting Arenas back.
6. Miami Heat- Wade will basically have to carry this team by himself again this year. If he gets injured?  Bye-bye playoffs.
7. Detroit Pistons- I don’t know what to think about this team anymore. They still have some talent, but they seem to have given away a lot of their defense.
8. Chicago Bulls- Another mystery team….  I think Derrick Rose is going to be REALLY good. Good enough that he might be able to carry this team into the playoffs in the East. They did lose Ben Gordon, but they will be getting back Luol Deng this year.
9. Toronto Raptors- They spent a LOT of money on some very shaky parts (Bargnani and Hedo.) They could be anywhere from #5 to #12.
10. Philadelphia 76ers- I think losing Andre Miller will really hurt them.
11. Indiana Pacers- I suppose they  could be OK if Danny Granger takes another leap and the rest of the team avoids injury.
12. Charlotte Bobcats- Umm…Michael Jordan is their GM.  I would bet $100 that he can’t name all the players that are in training camp for the Bobcats.
13. Milwaukee Bucks- Ugh.  I wish they were better. I love my man Bogut and I really like Michael Redd, but this team is going to suck! They traded Richard Jefferson for….nothing.  Meaning they have already mailed this season in.
14. New York Knicks- Besides rooting for the Jazz, the most fun thing to do this year will be to root against the Knicks. They suck + we own their draft pick= good times!
15. New Jersey Nets- Another team that is bottoming out this year.  They have some good young players like Devin Harris, Brook Lopez,  Courtney Lee, and Chris Douglas-Roberts (who I think will be a good player,) but they just don’t have enough talent to really compete. Hopefully that Russian millionaire who is buying part of the team will finally make them respectable again.

Other NBA Predictions

MVP- LeBron James

Rookie of the Year- Blake Griffin

Coach of the Year- Jerry Sloan (wishful thinking)

Western Conference Champ- Lakers (Blah!)

Eastern Conference Champ- Cavs

NBA Champion- Cavs

15 Comments

J R Stewart on September 30, 2009 said:

You’re right you are a homer, but so am I.

#3 means a lot of luck and things going right. Not likely to happen, but could.

Jazzaholic

Trent on September 30, 2009 said:

Should be an exciting year for the Jazz. I’m so glad pre-season is starting! It’s about time!

jake on September 30, 2009 said:

I disagree with the #3 prediction. You guys complain about how injuries are effecting us, how we ‘just’ didn’t play well. When in truth, the jazz aren’t as good as they were in the glory days, we have to get used to that now. I mean, in 07-08, the jazz were 4th seed, but in 08-09, the jazz did have a few injuries that did hurt them a bit, but other teams just got a lot better.

Don’t get me wrong I think the Jazz will do well next season, i’m just not with the 3rd seed prediction.

jazz fan on September 30, 2009 said:

i’m excited preseason is starting but i can’t find the channel its on???

tman11 on September 30, 2009 said:

If we stay healthy I think 3 is right on. IF we stay Heathly, if not i still see the jazz being 7th or 6th n the west there is to much talent on are team for us not to be

montgump on September 30, 2009 said:

Hey Joey Parker, how many playoff games did the Grizzlies win with Pau Gasol?

Orcis on October 01, 2009 said:

I love the Jazz, but we still need our interior defence to step it up. Staying healthy is one thing, but giving teams layups won’t get us the seed we want either.
Go Jazz!

Jared on October 01, 2009 said:

We are a 6th seed if everyone is healthy, and that is being optimistic. I have no idea why we haven’t made a move this off-season, because we desperately need a change.

Joey Parker on October 01, 2009 said:

Montgump, The Grizz won zero playoff games with Pau, but what does that have to do with anything? I would have been fine with them trading him, even if it was to the Lakers, for something of value. Instead, they got Kwame (worthless), Crittenton (worthless), McKie (Retired!!!), Marc Gasol (serviceable center), plus two LATE 1st round picks, for an ALL-STAR big man who is still in his prime! They couldn’t have at least gotten Lamar Odom or Luke Walton from the Lakers? PLUS, they didn’t even wait till the trade deadline to pull off this monstrosity of a trade!

They also could have traded him to a team that wouldn’t automatically become a champ because of him- say, to the Eastern Conference.

Also, with the money they saved by dumping Pau, they traded for Zach Randolph, who makes about the same amount and is a total knucklehead!

Sorry…this trade is a major sore subject for me. It totally shifted the balance of power in the West in an unfair way.

J R Stewart on October 01, 2009 said:

Joey:

BINGO!!!

This was the giveaway/rape of the century!

Jazzaholic

montgump on October 01, 2009 said:

The Grizzlies were going nowhere fast so they started to rebuild. All of those guys you mentioned are no longer with the Grizzlies except Marc Gasol who’s actually pretty good. They did what every other team seems to be doing these days in trading for expiring contracts. Yea it sucks they made the Lakers a championship team, but why would THEY care? They aren’t going to the Western Conference Finals anytime soon. They were looking out for themselves, and I don’t really blame them. I hate seeing the Lakers win anything, but I also hate excuses. LA still had to win 16 games to win it all. Four other teams had a chance to stop them and didn’t. I live in Tennessee, so the Grizzlies are my second favorite team, which is why it seems like I am sticking up for them. I am just tired of hearing about how dumb the trade was. Yea, it was one sided. A lot of trades are. They were rebuilding. Every team does it. The Memphis Grizzlies have won zero playoff games with and without Pau Gasol, and so they started over. And about Zach Randolph, I agree he’s a knucklehead, but they basically got him for Darko Milicic. The Clippers had an abundance of big men so Randolph was easy to pick up. They traded Darko for Quinten Richardson and then Q for Randolph. The Gasol trade really lowered my Jazz’s chances of winning a championship anytime soon, but life’s tough. I’ve got an idea though. Beat the Lakers anyways, with or without Gasol.

Spencer on October 02, 2009 said:

This team has yet to prove that it can, A. win on the road and B. win on the second night of a back to back. To win the division the Jazz will need somewhere in the 57 or so win range. Meaning that they will have to win 34-37 wins at home and 23-20 games on the road. The Jazz have not posted a 500 or better road record for almost 10 years. If you are saying that this is the year that they figure out how to win on the road then I hope you are right. I personally think as a huge realistic Jazz fan that they take third in the division and get bounced by LA or SA. For my sanity I hope I am dead wrong.

Joey Parker on October 02, 2009 said:

Re: montgump- This is the part that makes me angry with the Grizz: “Yea it sucks they made the Lakers a championship team, but why would THEY care? They aren’t going to the Western Conference Finals anytime soon.”

ALL NBA teams should have a plan to be competitive for a title within 5-years! I have even heard that stated somewhere… (Even the Kings right now should be saying “if we do this this and this, we will be competitive in 3 years…)

By the Grizzlies handing the Lakers a sure-thing 5-year championship window, they are basically admitting that they have no plan to get better anytime soon. (This can also be evidenced by their moves this summer…)

I truly appreciate you responding with such good feedback and critique, Mr. Montgump, that makes writing these posts a lot more fun! I really don’t have anything against the Grizzlies players or anything, just their owner… Like I said in my last post: I love Iverson!

Shannon in Sacramento on October 02, 2009 said:

I’d hate to say it, but the Jazz at #3 in the West seems a bit far fetched. We didn’t make any major moves. Now, if Booz decides, hey, why not play ALL year long and actually good, maybe I’d put us at 4 or 5, but 3 is pushing it. it’s just that the Jazz, for quite a few years, haven’t figured it out on the road. It’s like they are a completely different team. I do hope they go farther in the playoffs though and don’t end up an 8th seed. That was horrible to watch, especially for me in Cali. Though I believe in miracles, so here’s hoping! Great post though!

montgump on October 02, 2009 said:

Yea man I love arguing about the NBA too. About the whole 5 year thing, I don’t know if you have heard of Rudy Gay, OJ Mayo, and Marc Gasol, but Memphis is only getting better right now. A.I., Zach Randolph, and Hasheem Thabeet aren’t bad either. I am just tired of hearing excuses. I know we are just fans, but excuses really tick me off. If the players were making excuses I would say, ‘Just shut up and win’, but its the fans so it really doesn’t matter what I say. I just want to see my Jazz win. No excuses.

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