Fantasy Basketball 101

Posted by Matt Sanchez on October 15, 2009

I’m a fantasy-sports junkie.

I pride myself on being the guy that knows everything about sports, so, I play fantasy baseball, football and basketball-for fun? Yes.  But, I think it goes deeper.

I love chess.  It’s a great game that requires real mental skill.   Getting check-mate isn’t just something that happens, it’s a talent.  I always say that chess is one of the few things that both sides have an equal playing field…it doesn’t matter if you’re stronger or faster… you can simply sit and beat your opponent with your mind.  May sound extremely dull to some but to me it sounds great!

Fantasy basketball is just like chess.  You need to have a strategy and you need to know your opponent.

I run an extremely competitive league and last year was the first (of 5 years) that I did not win.  I could use this platform to complain and say how unlucky I was to lose by 1 measly turnover and/or 1 missed field goal, but I won’t.  I lost because I wasn’t as prepared as I should have been.

A fantasy draft is often where the league is won or lost.  True, it takes diligence, foresight and knowledge to actually take home the trophy but the draft is the most important.

This post is meant to help YOU in your draft.  Who to take, who to stay away from and who to take a chance on.

I will assume you are in a league that is Head to Head and you battle over specific categories because this is most common and it’s also how my league is played.

The most common categories used in fantasy basketball leagues are: points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, fg%, ft%, 3 pointers made, double-doubles  and turnovers.  These stats are what my analysis is based on.

ROUNDS 1-3: The Studs

Everyone will get all-stars with their first 3 selections but there is definitely strategy at play with whom you select.

Based on last year’s stats the top 8 should be:

*Chris Paul-The guy is in the top 30 in 6 different categories.  He does it all and does it at a high level.  In the last two year’s whoever has Chris Paul has won my fantasy league.

*LeBron James-What a great consolation.  LeBron is a monster and you can count on him for points, rebounds, assists and steals.

*Dwight Howard-Some may think spot is high for Superman.  Howard dominates four different categories.  If you have him then you’ll always have an advantage in rebs, blks, fg% and DD’s.

*Dwyane Wade-Wade led the league in scoring last season but people forget how versatile he is.  He was in the top ten in assists and steals and led all guards in blocked shots.

*Kobe Bryant-Kobe is mr. consistent.  He’s pretty much just like LeBron but on a lesser scale.  But be happy you’re in the top-5 because there is a significant drop off after.

*Deron Williams-A lot of fans (myself included) think D-Will is better than Paul in real life.  But unfortunately, this is fantasy basketball.  Deron is amazing with assists, double doubles and solid on ft%.  He’s scorer  and make a good amount of 3’s.  He was my first round pick last year and having the 7th pick, this year, I’d be happy to get him.

*Dirk Nowitzki-Dirk is another guy that you know what you’ll get.  He’ll score, shoot a great ft% and get decent rebounds.  He’s nice to have because he’s very consistent.

*Danny Granger-This guy was unreal last season but he’s down a bit on the list b/c he’ll prob have a drop in his stats.  He’s good but he really only gets you points and 3pm.  That being said, you’d be lucky to have him.

At this point you will have decisions to make and players will be available that you think are similar.

Chauncey Billups v. Jason Kidd-Advantage goes to Billups because he shoots a much higher % from the field and hits more 3’s,  and scores more points.  Plus he’s a couple years younger than Kidd, so that is an issue.

Tim Duncan v. Al Jefferson-Duncan is Duncan and he’ll consistently put up quality numbers but this isn’t 2003 anymore.  Jefferson gets more rebs, blks and points and when the season is winding down he will be playing.  Duncan gets a lot of rest in April and this will kill your team if you can’t get his stats. (I learned the hard way last year)

David West v. Kevin Garnett-KG was once Zeus of fantasy basketball.  He did it all and was amazing.  He’s still a quality player and doesn’t have to put up the numbers like he used to but I’d rather have David West.  West is way under the radar.  He’s a top-20 scorer and rebounder.  He gets tons of double doubles and as a power forward is a top 10 free throw shooter.

ROUNDS 4-7: When Strategy Comes Into Play

Troy Murphy, David Lee, Russell Westbrook, Andris Biedrins.  To the common-fan these names don’t mean anything.  I’m here to tell you that these are the guys that make the biggest impact on your team.

Murphy v. Elton Brand-True, Brand once was a stud player but those days are gone.  Murphy is always among the leaders in rebounds and was 2nd last season.  He is a power forward that is in the top 10 in 3pm and gets a ton of double doubles.  For Jazz fans, he’s what we wish Memo would be.

Westbrook v. Ben Gordon-I like Gordon, a lot.  But, he does nothing more than score and make 3’s.  Plus being on a new team, that is loaded with guards, he’s not the safe bet.  Westbrook plays on the Thunder, so most people don’t even know who he is.  As a rookie last season, he avgd more steals than Manu Ginobili and more assists than Brandon Roy or T.J. Ford.

The Sleepers:

Kevin Love-Rebounding machine

Stephen Curry-Will gets tons of playing time as a rookie

Aaron Brooks-Rockets are banged up and will rely on Brooks for a lot.

J.R. Smith-Will start at sg and will score.

Anthony Randolph-Will average a double double this season.

Don’t Go Near ‘Em!

Michael Redd-always injured and all he’ll give you is points.

Allen Iverson-see above

Jermaine O’Neal-A big name that has fallen from grace.  When healthy, he’s decent but that just doesn’t happen anymore.

……………………………………………………….

Bottom line for your draft is go with your head, not your heart.  Yeah, I’d love to have Millsap  but if I have Jefferson, Bidedrins and David Lee, I prob won’t need Milly.

Have a balanced team.  Don’t load your team full of power fowards and centers because you won’t win.  PG’s and PF’s are your safest bet because they tend to have their hand in many categories.

It’s ok to take a gamble at the end of your draft.  Roy Hibbert may be a good pick over Chris Kaman.  Likewise, this is where you should take rookies and guys coming back from injury (Tracy McGrady).

Any questions?  I’m happy to help!

7 Comments

Dan Markham on October 15, 2009 said:

Fantastic calls. You know what you are talking about. I agree with all of your sleepers except alston. He will get minutes and score but he lacks other categories. I like where you put Howard. He is a fantasy beast and may go first in leagues like you said. Murphy, love and biedrins are good picks. What do you think about Vince Carter? He will be dishing to Howard so may be interesting as a sg.

I think milsap is a good late pickup in case boozer gets traded this year midseason.

Cole on October 15, 2009 said:

Loved this! I too am a fantasy sports junkie and was happy to see this on here. Would have loved more info on Jazz players but that’s ok.

Never thought Westbrook was a quality guy but after reading this, I went and checked out his year last year and I think the kid is a complete sleeper.

Cole

Boondock Saint (Zak) on October 16, 2009 said:

I’m a total fantasy basketball nut. I placed 54th in the world last year on the NBA Stock Exchange…while different still highly competetive. I agree with a lot of your stuff here (especially about Troy Murphy who is going to make the biggest difference of any of those 4-7 rounders) and I wanted to add a few more.

Luis Scola- He is going to be there #1 rebounder and offensive threat and Houston is going to have a huge year.

Kevin Love and Randolph (both who you mentioned)- are both high quality sleepers.

Chris Duhon- In deep leagues this guy could just have a breakout year on a terrible New York team. They are running D’Antoni’s system which means mega stats for good passers and this kid has the talent.

Rookies- Everyone is all hyped about Griffin and he’ll be a stud but I would totally through Tyreke Evans in there. He is NBA ready and can play some ball. In deep leagues you may want to snag this sleeper.

Let me know what you think. I love fantasy basketball ohhh and GO JAZZ!!

Leslie M on October 16, 2009 said:

This is a good article. I can’t believe it is baseball playoffs and I am more interested in Fantasy basketball right now.

I agree with the previous poster about Blake Griffin. Kaman wasn’t playing a few nights ago but look at his stats…Incredible! Too bad there are so many big guys and selfish guys on the team He would be huge anywhere else. Late in the draft he is a great pick.

I think Troy Murphy will go in the late second to third round in many drafts. Do you think he is a good value at that pick?

What about Michael Beasley in the 10th round? I would think he will have a great year fantasy wise.

Steve on October 16, 2009 said:

I think there are a lot of fantasy ballers that follow jazzbots and this article was nice to read. I have been playing since 98 and get so excited this time of year!

I remember the days when Shaq, KG, Gary Payton and Latrell Sprewell were monsters.

I love the list of sleepers and what Boondock said. I’m a Jazz fan living in Sacramento and people here are in love with Tyreke Evans. The guy is 6′6″ and playing point guard. Sac has no ballers so he will get a lot of play.

I agree with David West and Kevin Love. Both very underrated PF’s.

I would say, watch out for Eric Gordon and D.J. Augustin. Both are young guards but they should be huge sleepers this year.

I’d love to hear more of your thoughts on Roy Hibbert and Andris Biedrins…????

Jon on October 18, 2009 said:

Blake Griffin is going to tear it up and get tons of minutes.

Agree about Randolph and think Kirk Hinrich might come back to his old self now that BenGordon is gone.

Matt Sanchez on October 19, 2009 said:

I’m excited to see so many fantasy ballers on Jazzbots!

My draft is less than a week away and I’m a little nervous but very excited!

My thoughts on some of the questions y’all had on specific players…

Boondock, you make some great points and I couldn’t agree more with you. Scola is one of those guys that fligh way under the radar and people don’t realize how much he can offer as a rebounder. Also, Duhon is really the only Knick that is a true point guard and he was just outside the top 10 in assists last year. Definite sleeper.

Vince Carter-He’s one of those guys that you know what he’ll give you. Always going to score and hit a lot of 3’s. However, when a guy that’s used to being the star goes to a new team that already has established players, he usually takes a back seat. I’d draft him but not too high.

Leslie, I do think Murphy is a good value pick if you get him in the 3rd round. Depends on how deep your league is but he should be a quality player for you all season. And about Beasley, I do think he will have a good sophomore year. Miami isn’t very deep so he’ll get tons of minutes.

Steve, I like Hibbert. But he’s definitely a late round pick. If he’s your #1 center than you have some problems. He has looked really good this preseason. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the top 3 in blocks this season.

Good luck to all!

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