Boozer promised he would opt out, but clearly he looked around and realized he couldn’t improve on the $12.7 million he is scheduled to earn this year. Once Kyle Korver and Boozer opted in, Okur realized the Jazz weren’t going to give him more money and he opted in.

Millsap is a restricted free agent, so he needs someone to give him a big money offer and then the Jazz can either match it, or let him go. Portland, Memphis, Detroit and Oklahoma City were thought to be interested in Millsap, but the Blazers look like they are going to spend their money on Hedo Turkoglu, the L.A. Times and TNT are reporting the Clippers have traded power forward Zach Randolph to the Grizzlies. The Pistons are signing free agent power forward Charlie Villanueva for five years and $35 million.

Suddenly it looks like it is just the Jazz and the Thunder. Oklahoma City has Kevin Durant and a couple of other young players looking at huge paydays in a couple of years, so it is unlikely they will offer the $10 million Millsap’s agent says Paul deserves.

I thought Millsap’s contract would be about $8 million per year, but Villanueva’s deal suggests the number will be closer to $7 million per year. Villanueva is 25 years old and Millsap turns 25 next winter. Check out their comparative statistics

Villanueva Millsap

Minutes 27 30

Points 16.2 13.5

Rebounds 6.7 8.6

FG % 44.7 53.4

FT % 83.8 69.9

3PT FG % 34.5 0.0

Giving Millsap $7 million will cost the Jazz $14 million unless they can make some trades and eliminate some payroll costs, because the Jazz are going to go over the luxury tax which will be set at the end of the season, probably at about $70 million. If you followed the team in the early and mid-90’s when the organization had stretched to build the arena, this will shock you, but Greg Miller and Kevin O’Connor have said in separate interviews the Jazz will pay the luxury tax for a year or two to keep the team together.

Jerry Sloan has said in multiple interviews that Millsap deserves a raise and he wants Paul back. When Jerry is definitive, he gets what he wants. No one in the organization crosses him. I expect the Jazz to keep Paul Millsap and I think he’ll $7-$8 million per year.

Why is this a good move: the game is becoming more and more about shooting and he can shoot. He can play both the three and the four. Not a brilliant three shooter at 32% but his Locke offensive ranking is a 12.5 (10 is average)  and 20 is a starter.  He went to the line 11% of his possessions so he is not scared of the rim and contact.  He has been at 11% both of the last two seasons. This is a good number for a three point shooter.  In 07-08 his Locke offensive ranking was a 21. This would make him one of the most undervalued players in the NBA. A Physical player. He’s an average rebounder.

Why is this a bad move: The Nuggets were much better with him on the bench, should be since he often replaces Anthony. The Nugs were also better defensively when he was on the bench. A year ago the opposite was true. The Nugs were better when he was on the floor, however they were worse defensively when he was on the floor.  May not be a good enough rebounder to get a lot of time at the 4.

Overall: A year ago he was the best bargain in the NBA.  All of his numbers pointed toward a break out and one of the best 6th men in the NBA. However, he slipped this season or the Nugs just got better. If his price is not outrageous this could one of the best value signings in the NBA.  A very efficient offensive player who was only getting 10 possessions a game and scoring 11 points a game. This could be a real find.

What do you think?

I’m on on Twitter HERE

Utah Jazz on Twitter HERE

Why is this a good move: Garcia is a true shooting guard.  He moves well without the ball.  He was the #1 option when he was at Louisville and can handle the big moments.  Tough minded.  Started 36 games when Martin was out and averaged 13 pts that can go either as a positive or a negative, he shot 43% from the field and 40% from three as a starter. The Locke offensive rankings have him as a 19.5 in 07-08 and a 13.0 with extended time in 08-09. 19.5 is a starter caliber number. A shooter that has to be guarded.

In 07-08 the Kings were better when he was on the floor and were considerably better defensively when he was on the floor.

Why is this a bad move: Not very athletic. The slip in his numbers when he got more time is not a great sign.  The Kings were just terrible when he was on the floor and the defense was historically bad all year and equally bad when he was on the floor. Is that Garcia or the Kings. This was not the case in 07-08 and 06-07.

Overall: The Jazz need a good shooting guard who can stretch the floor.  I am not sure Garcia is a starting shooting guard in the NBA.

What do you think?

I’m on on Twitter HERE

Utah Jazz on Twitter HERE

Why is this a good move: Energetic active player. Became an NBA player over the past three years with Golden State and Phoenix

Why is this a bad move: He has only been successful in open court system.  He has poor basketball IQ.  Is a shot first guy.  In both of the last two years he uses possessions below the league average.  Only goes to the free throw line 7% of his possessions last year in Phoenix and 6% of the time in Golden State.  Is strictly an open floor player who shots a lot of spot up three’s which doesn’t mesh with the Jazz system.  The Suns were a better team when he was on the bench than when he was on the floor last year the same was true for the Warriors.  In both cases the Suns and Warriors were better defensive teams when he was on the bench.

Overall: Kevin Ferguson wanted me to run the numbers and analysis on Barnes.   He is a high volume low efficiency player who does not make you better defensively.  This is the player that gets valued in this league for averaging 10 pts a game and the average player in the league would do the same with those possessions.  My numbers show he is slightly better than a D-Leaguer therefore I see no need to spend the money that could be used for a D-Leaguer that is almost as good.

What do you think?

I’m on on Twitter HERE

Utah Jazz on Twitter HERE

With this topic raging on 1320, K-Fan I thought I would break down some numbers. This is isn’t exactly fair since Boozer was playing without Deron Williams this year or when Boozer goes out of a game he is subbed for with Milsap, whereas when Boozer is hurt and Milsap leaves the game he is replaced by a less experienced player. Therefore, don’t draw too many conclusions from all of this, but it is worth some food for thought.

BASED ON OPPONENT
Some of these numbers are surprising so how much does it have to do with the opponents the Jazz have played.

The defenses that the Jazz have played in the 13 games without Boozer allow 1.5 pts more per 100 possessions then what the teams of the first 12 games did. Therefore, though the 13 games without Boozer have a slightly better offensive rating the defenses the team has played in that span have been far worse.

The average defense in the 12 Boozer games is a 109.0 and the Jazz scored 109.9, or .09 better than average, whereas in the 13 games without Boozer the Jazz are scoring 110.5 against defenses that allow 110.6 or right on average.

On the defensive side of the ball it was very surprising to find out that the Jazz have played better defense in the games Boozer played. The offenses that Boozer played have averaged 107.2 points per 100 possessions this year and the Jazz held those teams to 104.9. That is a nice difference of 2.3 better than average. In the games without Boozer the opponents have averaged 108.8 pts per 100 possessions and the Jazz defense has been a 107.2 or 1.6 points better than the average. Still not quite equal to what the team did in the 12 games Boozer played.
Again these numbers have numerous variable but they are enough to make on re-consider the conventional wisdom of how the Jazz are similar or different with Milsap and Boozer

FINAL SCORE JAZZ 104 THUNDER 97
The night ended with the crowd chanting Jerry Sloan
1,000 wins as a Jazz Coach for Sloan.
The game was never close.
5-0 start without Deron is very nice.
The road trip is going to be tough without Deron but they just gave themselves some leeway.
Jazz got 21 from Boozer.  16 from Memo and AK.  AK also had 12 rebounds,
Jazz shot 50%
Knight had 11 assists in 28 minutes

4:26 4th Quarter – Jazz 95 Thunder 80
Thunder cut it to 8
Jazz then score on 6 straight possessions.  Every possession since Boozer checked back in.   Without Deron the Jazz were just lacking
AK is killing Jeff Green on his cuts.

SUMMARY

Boozer was big time and that is what you have to have when Deron is out.
That is a tough win without Deron.  To be in a every possession game without your leader is a tough task to open the night.
Price wasn’t great but he didn’t throw up on himself and cost the team the game.  He controlled the game and did what he was supposed to do.  The Jazz were +13 when Price was on the floor.
AK had the night we envisioned when it was talked about him coming off the bench.  He was tremendously active.  He had 16 points; 6 rebounds; 3 assists; 2 blocks and a steal.
The bench was terrific today.  35 points off the bench; 14 rebounds; 6 assists. 
Ronnie Brewer played very well. 
A double double for Memo and some very nice powerful moves.

FINAL SCORE – JAZZ 98 NUGS 94

Boozer was big late.  With the score 91-90, Price drove and gave it up in traffic and Boozer was able to scoop it off floor and into the hoop for the bucket and his 5th straight point in the stretch.
Jazz got a huge break as Korver missed a free throw but they ruled a lane violation and Korver hit the third free throw.
Price hit two clutch free throws to keep the Jazz up 3.

:26 left 4th Quarter – Jazz 91 Nuggets 90

Boozer has gone to the line the last two possession and has hit 3 of 4 free throws.
Nugs are living off a high pick and roll with AI and whoever is there big.
Possession by possession game without Deron and Jazz don’t look comfortable.
From the 5 minute mark on the Jazz scored on just 4 of 9 possessions
Neither team is able to execute and score down the stretch without their scoring stud.
Sloppy play – looks like both teams could be tired in the opener.
Jazz in the penalty at the 3:17 mark 

5:54 4th Quarter – Jazz 82 Nugs 82

Kyle Korver is trying to guard JR Smith and Smith is shooting everytime down the floor. 
The Jazz should have gotten more separation in this game, it could get nerve racking. 
Knight is struggling a bit this go around.
Boozer enters at the 6:52 mark – he has been the man (20/13) he will need to carry the mail home.
Korver is not playing well – he just had a sloppy turnover.
The Jazz have no urgency.  They need a leader right now. 

End of 3rd Quarter – Jazz 75 Nuggets 67

Good quarter by the Jazz. The Nugs were really out of sorts and the Jazz could be up by a lot more.  Part of me is concerned that they just missed the opportunity.
I don’t feel like Price is playing very well, he is missing shots that have to be made.  However, the Jazz are +13 when he is on the floor.
If this game gets close it could be interesting to see how the Jazz are able to execute down the stretch without Deron.
Boozer has been big tonight – 20 points and 13 rebounds

7:16 3rd Quarter—Jazz 58 Nugs 50

I feel like the game is in the balance the Jazz could run away with this one but Price has had two bad possessions, a missed three off a Memo double team and a sloppy turnover.  That was followed by a CJ Miles turnover when he tried to run a pick and roll.   The Nugs are really unfocused right now and the Jazz just missed a prime opportunity.
Ronnie Brewer is playing well – he is doing a nice defensive job on Iverson.

Halftime – Jazz 50 Nuggets 46

Jazz offense has been pretty good at 52% shooting. This is more a comment on the Nugs defense than a comment about the Jazz offense.
AK had the performance we would hope coming off the bench. 8 points 3 rebounds 2 assists.
Iverson and Martin both have 10 points. Boozer leads the Jazz 14 points and 7 rebounds.
We knew turnovers would be an issue the Jazz have turned it over on 21% of their possessions so far.
Jazz are winning the battle of the boards as they are getting 35% of the potential offensive rebounds.

5:22 2nd Quarter — Jazz 40 Nuggets 35

Ronnie Price is really having a struggle at the point guard tonight both offensively and defensively. He just got a blow by from Anthony Carter.
The Jazz interior defense is not noticeable any better than a year ago. Some of the help on the perimeter looks a bit better and with a good effort.
The Jazz offense does not have the flow without Deron.
The Nugs are missing shots I would assume they would make.
Memo had a really good powerful post move over Nene. That is a big boy to overpower.

End of 1st Quarter – Jazz 28 Nuggets 27
In Boise all the players talked about Paul Milsap being slimmer and more agile he showed with a drive from the top of the key for a nice layup.
Brevin Knight is a good solid player and he plays the game very astutely.
AK has been very active off the bench. He has been involved both offensively and defensively. However, he is still AK and there are those moments.

5:42 1ST Quarter – Jazz 14 Denver 12
AK enters off the bench at the 6:56 mark (Jazz leading 14-11). Jazz 1st play is a high weave to get him involved.
Ronnie Brewer had two nice drives from the wing.
CJ Miles ended up with Iverson guarding him and the Jazz cleared out and hit rose for a 17 footer that he nailed. On defense the Nugs went after CJ with Kleiza and drew two fouls.
Boozer has been active and playing the way you would want him to since Deron is out of the game

Numbers
Nuggets were the #1 pace team in the NBA last year — Jazz were the 10thJazz were #1 offensive team in efficiency, the Nugs were 11thThe Jazz were the #12 defensive team and the Nugs were the 10th.Keys to the Game1. Limit the turnovers by the Jazz players who aren’t used to having the ball2. Prevent an explosion off the bench by the Nuggets3. Patience offensively not falling into the trap of bad quick shotsOfficialsGreg WillardJason Phillips Tony Brown
AK enters off the bench at the 6:56 mark (Jazz leading 14-11). Jazz 1st play is a high weave to get him involved.

Extensions for Boozer and Okur were the stories in the yesterday afternoon session. Talking to Dan Sheldon of KUTV2 and the FanSports Network, both said they were not interested in talking about an extension or where they trying to get a deal done.

This is a simple math and money issue.  If these players were to sign an extension today they would be restricted in what they are earning to a percentage raise off their last year’s contract. Where as, if they opt out of the contract and become a free agent they are able to take their first year contract to whatever number the market bears and then start their percentage increases.

The only reason to sign today would be to add security in case of injury. However, both of these players have two more guaranteed years on their deals so that is still nice security if something dreadful happens.

In other news, here are our interviews from the first practice.

Carlos Boozer

Deron Williams

CJ Miles

Ronnie Brewer

Today Jerry Sloan held an hour long meeting with the players before the opening practice.   His message had two parts.   First, you have a chance to be very special.  The talent is here to set your sights and goals at the highest level.   Part two was the important part.  If you are going to do this you will have to defend and you will have to win on the road.

Sloan sighted how the Boston Celtics came together on the defensive end and played together as a team.  Talking with the players they all seemed to get the message.   One player was less willing to talk about Sloan’s demands for defense than the others.  I will let you speculate.

‘C.J. Miles: More Minutes?’ (Noah Graham – NBAE/Getty Images)

If you could move one piece of the Jazz, what would it be?  Can CJ Miles become a bonafide rotation player?  Who is your ideal free agent?  Who should be the coach of the Jazz when Jerry Sloan retires?  All of those questions and more are answered by Jazz fans just like you in the Jazz blogger roundtable.  Tune in to KFAN next Monday at 4 for another variety of issues to be discussed about the Utah Jazz and the offseason.

Sponsored By: Barry’s Tickets – Click here to get your tickets to the next big event.

More on the NBA draft. I’m just back from vacation and not impressed to find “The Second Coming of Mehmet Okur.” David James defends the pick pointing to Sloan comments about the offense not functioning without Okur on the floor. All I want from the 23rd pick is a skill. Here’s the debate – you decide.

Ohio State coach Thad Matta joined me to talk about new Jazz center Kosta Koufos. Matta said his former player has the desire to develop into a solid player. He talks about Koufos’s rebounding, shooting, passing, defense, and ability to run. Matta is obviously a big fan of his player but the interview gives you some incite on what Koufos did at Ohio State and what type of player he may become.

Sponsored By: Barry’s Tickets – Click here to get your tickets to the next big event.

I’ve been watching a copy of the Jazz scouting video of Kostas Koufas. I watched two games. Ohio State v. Indiana (DJ White) and Ohio State v. Califronia (DeVon Hardin and Ryan Anderson)

Player: Kostas Koufas

Height: 7’0
Weight: 265 pounds
Age: 19 years old

College: Ohio State
Position: Center
Projection (Star; Starter; Rotation; Bench; Fringe) — Starter at some point in his career
Most Similar Player: Raef LaFrentz; Memo Okur; Mark Blount

Games Reviewed: Ohio State v. Indiana; Ohio State v. Cal

Dominant Hand: Right Handed.

SUMMARY
Koufas is a remarkably skilled and versatile big man. He is a legit big with a big frame and body that moves well. In watching over an hour his game films he never took plays off, he never took the easy route out of a play. He plays the entire possession working early on both offense and defense. His greatest attribute is his fantastic touch with the basketball. On scramble plays he has very good hands. He lacks the athleticism to explode and play above people other than with his height.

His offensive game ranges from college three point range to the block. He spent most of his time at Ohio State playing in the block. He has some moves in around the basket, but plays away from contact and almost never goes to the line. He will be able to stretch an NBA floor with his shooting from all spots. He plays offensively from a lot of spots and at a lot of angles. He will fit well into the Jazz system.

Defensively, he plays to stop the possession not just his man. He is a shot blocker. Against both DJ White and Devon Hardin his size eliminated their post up games. He has enough athleticism to rise up with the man he is guarding. Could become better going from weak to strong side, but was very good if the ball moved but stayed on the same side of the floor. He can change directions.

Was the best player on the floor in both of the games I watched with included a total of 4 other draftees.

His most impressive stretch was second half in Indiana at Assembly Hall as a freshman leading his team from behind he was dominate. He controlled the paint abusing DJ White, he scored from all angles and all of them in the paint. He blocked White on the defensive end and he ran the floor. He was unquestionably the best player on the floor for a 10 minute and Indiana has two first picks in Eric Gordon and DJ White.

His career will be determined by a phrase we use on Locked on Sports, is he a baller or a basketball player. A baller loves the game and is always playing and always finding ways to improve. A basketball player is that a basketball player. It has do with the level of passion. If he is a baller he is a long time NBA starting center.

OFFENSIVE SETS
Pick and Roll: pick and pop game will adjust well to the NBA. Has a good quick release with the jumper. Ohio State guards were three point happy so he didn’t get to use this part of his game.

Post-Up Game: Willing to play in the post. Plays most of the game in the paint but is not an effective scorer. He lacks a full compliment of moves or the ability to elevate over his defender. His game is stuck to the floor in the paint area. A smaller DJ White of Indiana blocked two of his shots. Once when he tried to go quickly to the baseline and didn’t protect the ball another when he tried a jump hook over the left shoulder it still got blocked.

This doesn’t mean he can’t score in the paint. He does some very nice things. One play v. Cal he slide down the lane from the free throw line to the right block and was open, he got the pass with his left hand above his shoulders and immediately got it to his right hand without ever brining it down and hit a nice 6 foot banker off the glass. This was really nice, athletic and skilled move. This play translates great to the Jazz offense.

That jump hook is nice and soft. It is his primary offensive move. He hit it over the 7 footer Hardin from the right block going baseline. Right block going over left shoulder is his move.

He understands how to use his body and how to adapt to the game. After getting his shots block he then sealed White on two occasions where he got White on his outside shoulder and pushed him up the lane getting back to back easy lay-ups.

Works hard to get post up position. Showed a nice drop step to the baseline from the left block where he went baseline and sealed off his man. Caught left block and went middle, seemed to lose his balance a bit and not have his feet right as he missed a rolling hook to the middle.
Isolation: When he drove with the left hand and swings back over the left shoulder with a right hand hook that doesn’t have full extension.

Catch and Shoot : Very strong for a big. Has a nice 16 foot baseline jumper with a good release. Can also play the pick and pop game off the pick and roll.

Able to catch in the paint and in one motion go to the basket. Doesn’t need to set his feet to get his balance. He slashed across the lane caught the pass and immediately turned into a runner for two.
Off-Ball Movement: Plays the game the right way. Comes out to set picks, works off the weakside and uses the time away from the ball to get himself open. Will play a possession early.

Passing: He passed well out of the double teams in the post. This is against smaller players and less pressure so not sure how it translates. More importantly, he showed an understanding of the game in how to deal with double teams. He is comfortable with the ball. Can be lazy with a pass and it results in a turnover
Ball Handling: One dribble and no more. Yet, he seems to understand how to use that dribble.

DEFENSE
Effort: I never saw him take a play off. I never saw him slack the possession. I never saw him not run the floor. He made ever close out. He worked hard.

Ohio State plays a zone. Almost always a 2-3, what jumps out is they have Koufas play a wing on the bottom so he has to move a great deal. He has to close out on shooters on the perimeter or switch back quickly on a skip pass. He does it pretty well.

He showed really good hands on the defensive end. Twice he deflected passes and was able to corral the ball himself in traffic.
Rebounding: Struggles to bring in the rebound on many occasions he made the first contact with the ball with one hand on rebound in the paint on the defensive glass but both times he was unable to corall the rebound and it turned into a bucket for Indiana.

He is not very active on the offensive glass. He is in rebounding range but lacks the jumping skills or athleticism to steal a rebound. A bit passive on the offensive glass.
Shot Blocking: Pretty fantastic block on fellow 1st round pick DJ White. From a stand still he just rose up when White came in the lane to challenge and meet him at the top with the right back and rejected it big time. He came from the weak side to stuff Devon Hardin. He is a shot blocker. He will effect shots in the NBA.

Post-Defense: Got matched up on DJ White a lot in the zone against Ohio State and Devon Hardin a 7 footer drafter in the 2nd round in the Cal game. Kept his ground and used his size to deny White and Hardin any shooing pockets. He bothered both using his length to impact their shots. White got nothing on him and got all his offense on other guys. Forced both into fade away jumpers that came up short. He is a good enough athlete to rise up and effect the shot when they go up. Didn’t bite on the pump fake and held strong forcing White to fade back in the paint and come up very short. He pushes guys off their spot in the post, does a nice job of playing defense early. Seems strong.

Rotation – He is forced to close out a lot on the zone and does a prett nice job. He gets low for a big guy and rarely has someone blow by him on the dribble. He does a nice job of using the baseline to help him defend. At times has moved his feet laterally well. He doesn’t get stuck in one spot, when the opponent changes his move or goes to the counter he is usually able to go with him. Got caught out on the floor trying to guard fellow 1st round pick Ryan Anderson of Cal with the shot clock winding down and forced a steal at 24 feet.

INTANGIBLES
Perservernce: I really liked this. He opened the second half v. Indiana and got back to back shots blocked by DJ White. On the next possessions he got great position sealed him off and packed it with the right hand for a big dunk and a foul. 3 point play. A freshman unwilling to be intimidated.

Willingness to Execute: Plays the game the right way.

Final 5 Minutes of a Close Game: Nothing spectacular. His activity increased and his body langugue made it looked like he cared if they won. He committed two turnovers in the final 5 v. Indiana and also hit a big top of the key three.

OBSERVATIONS

* He was playing against DJ White, a senior on a the road as a freshman and was completed unintimidated. In fact, White had to be moved off Koufas and had to get his offense when guarded by other players.

Scott Garrard and Ben Bagley got the final word from Kevin O’Connor at the Zions Bank Basketball Center for the 2008 NBA Draft. Hear it here.

The Utah Jazz selected Kosta Koufos, from Ohio State, with their 23rd pick in the 2008 NBA draft. Hear my talk with the newest Jazz player here.

What should you get.

The Jazz pick 23rd this year.
Over the past 10 drafts picks from 21-to the end of the 1st round have yielded.

0% all pro
3% all star
15% starters
31% rotation player
17% fringe
34% zero

Here is the breakdown of all the picks of the last 10 drafts.

Interesting Notes
* 51% of 1st round picks after the 10th pick turn out to be fringe or bust
* Every All-Pro player was taken in the top 10.
* picks 11-15 have faired terribly.
* Only 7% of picks after #10 become all stars

Sponsored By: Barry’s Tickets – Click here to get your tickets to the next big event.

Player: Nicolas Batum

Height: 6’8
Weight: 214 pounds

Age: 19 years old

College: Euro League
Position: Small Forward/Shooting Guard
Projection (Star; Starter; Rotation; Bench; Fringe) – Rotation until he gets a better jumper

Most Similar Player: Mickael Gelabale (Sonics) high end projection – Older Grant Hill or Tayshaun Prince

Games Reviewed: Hyerer-Toulon v. Strasbourg

Dominant Hand: Right handed

CLICK HERE FOR THE COMPLETE REPORT

Sponsored By: Barry’s Tickets - Click here to get your tickets to the next big event.

About 85% of the mock drafts out there predict that the Jazz will take former Georgetown big man Roy Hibbert in this months NBA Draft.

ESPN’s Chad Ford says, “Is there a better fit for Hibbert than Utah? He needs a team that excels in half-court sets. His size and scoring ability make him an asset as long as you don’t ask him to run the floor or play 40 minutes a game. ”

The Jazz got their first look at the 7′2″ draftee in a workout this morning at the Zion’s Bank Basketball Center. Jazz Vice President of Basketball Ops Kevin O’Connor says that Hibbert is a proven product having played 4 years at Georgetown, and the Jazz having over 100 games of video of Hibbert.

Hibbert for his part, said that Utah was “a must” on his list of team that he had to work out for. He told the gathered media that he has video of most of Carlos Boozer’s in game post touches in a library he used to better his own game by watching how Boozer scores around the hoop. He also talked about how he’d love to be “a cog” in the Jazz system and sees it a perfect fit for his game.

While Hibbert was excited to be in Utah working out for the Jazz, it was his first NBA Draft workout. Hibbert said that it may have been the reason why he was a bit dissappointed in his performance. Hibbert felt that he was too tense and tenative in his play, but hopes that the Jazz brass consider his body of work, not just his draft workout performance .

Hibbert went back to Georgetown for his senior year, and it will likely cost him in the draft. Last year he was projected as a lottery pick, while this year he could be around at the Jazz pick of 23. Hibbert told me that he didn’t regret the decision, because he got his degree and also feels more ready for the NBA mentally.

What’s your take on Hibbert?

Sponsored By: Barry’s Tickets – Click here to get your tickets to the next big event.

If you have listened to Locked on Sports you have all learned Rule #2 of Locked on Sports, the average trip the free throw line gives a team 1.5 points, the average three point shot give a team 1.08 points per shot and the average two point shot gives a team .97 points per shot.

Therefore when John Hollinger of ESPN was on Locked on Sports and made an off hand comment that he liked the Jazz, but they foul too much and it is going to cost them it rang a bell. Then I watch the Jazz send the Lakers to the line time after time and I began to wonder if the Jazz have a philosophical flaw.

It is undeniable that a part of Jerry Sloan’s defensive philosophy is to foul. Since he took over the reigns as head coach in 1988 the Jazz have allowed 4,068 more free throws than the average NBA team has allowed in that time span. That is over 200 per season.

The trend has worsened since the retirement of Marc Eaton in 1992-93. Over the past 15 years Jazz opponents are on average taking 282 more free throws a season than the average. Over the past 10 years opponents have taken 301 more free throws per season than the average and over the past 5 years the Jazz opponents have taken 418 more free throws than the average team in the NBA.

Not since the 1991-92 season have the Jazz held their opponent to below the league average of free throws taken in a season.

Remember each free throw is worth .766 points a game.

In the 2007-08 season the Jazz opponents took 2468 free throws. The average team in the NBA took 2045. Therefore, Jazz opponents took an extra 423 free throws over the course of the season, 5 a game. Five free throws a game are worth nearly 4 points a game.

It is worth noting that over the past 20 years the Jazz average shooting 20 more free throws a season than their opponent. However, over the past 10 years the Jazz have allowed opponents to shot 77 free throws per season.

The thought behind this philosophy is that by fouling on easy looks you are saving points. For that to be true the Jazz FG% defense would need to be better than the rest of the league. However, over the past 5 years the Jazz FG% defense is the exact same as the league and over the past 10 years is just .4% better than the league average.

The average team takes 81.5 shot attempts in an NBA game. The Jazz opponent takes a one or two less since they are going to the free throw line so much.

The Jazz holding teams to .4% better shooting percentage is only one shot every three games.

Let me give you a hypothetical.

The Jazz philosophy is that they will not give up any easy looks around the basket and therefore, they foul the shooter. Using some of the above numbers let’s assume this happens three times in a game. If the Jazz foul all three times the opponent will shot 6 free throws and on average come away with 4.6 points. Therefore, if the shooter were to miss one of the three shots the Jazz would be better off not fouling since he would only get 4 points.

This is not entirely accurate because the real problem with fouling is that you put the team in the penalty and then they get two free throws on off ball fouls, ticky tack fouls, etc.

However, even if everything went perfectly I would argue that fouling when you are beat is bad idea. You are better off contesting the shot or hoping for a miss. The Utah Jazz shot just 61% on shots inside 5 feet for the entire season.

Just some food for thought in the off-season.

Sponsored By: Barry’s Tickets – Click here to get your tickets to the next big event.

How does each player stack up? Some interestin analysis by www.countthebasket.com

Click here for the study.

Here are some of the findings:

Ronnie Price the best defensive player in the NBA – small sample size. Called a fluke by researcher.

Deron ranks #1 of starting point guards – Chris Paul is ranked last

Ronnie Brewer ranks #4 at shooting guard behind Igudola, Carter and Manu at the shooting guard

AK ranks really average about the 44^th percentile of defenders at small forward

Harpring ranks the second worst small forward defensively in the NBA only to Kevin Durant

Boozer 3^rd worst at power forward with Charlie Villenueva and AL Jefferson as worse

Paul Milsap and Jarron Collins average

Okur bottom 5 of starting centers.

Sponsored By: Barry’s Tickets – Click here to get your tickets to the next big event.

1. Lakers with Bynum and Gosol
2. Jazz
3. Spurs
4. Suns as sleeper if Shaq doesn’t fall asleep!